Today’s Digest covers Aramco’s profit surge and Hormuz talks, the dying yen carry trade, France’s deficit and Fitch downgrade, Kyiv missile strikes, AI wage algorithms, and San Andreas quake risks.
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Energy
Saudi Aramco reported a 33 percent jump in Q2 profit to $33.4 billion. The company sold oil at an average $108.10 a barrel versus $66.70 a year earlier. Liquids production fell 28 percent to 7.57 million barrels a day, and natural gas output fell 16 percent. CEO Amin Nasser called the Hormuz closure the largest oil shock in history.
Meanwhile, spot oil prices fell on Tuesday, with WTI falling $4.70 to $75.64 and Brent falling $4.61 to $79.16. This follows Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments that a deal could come Tuesday or Wednesday. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also cited progress, and President Trump called an agreement to reopen the Strait and denuclearize Iran imminent.
However, Iran rejected reports that Washington, Tehran, and Oman were nearing a 60-day interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. A source close to the Revolutionary Guard told Al Mayadeen that Iran will not sign any agreement while under US military threats. An informed source told Iranian state TV that the ongoing Iran-Oman talks have no US involvement. Just six vessels transited Hormuz on Monday, and a cargo ship was struck near Oman. Goldman Sachs expects Brent between $80 and $90 absent confirmation or escalation.
Economy
According to analysis from The Kobeissi Letter, before April 2025, the USD/JPY relationship tracked closely with the 10-year US–Japan yield differential. That relationship broke down after April 2025, coinciding with President Trump’s “Liberation Day.” The 10-year Treasury yield now stands roughly 2.0 percentage points above the Japanese 10-year yield, down about a full point since April 2025, while the USD/JPY continued higher. In the words of The Kobeissi Letter, “The yen carry trade is dying.” However, some market observers described the traditional carry-trade anchor as weakening rather than fully ended.
Speaking of potential triggers, France’s central government deficit reached roughly €107 billion by the end of June, according to the French Ministry of Finance, 14.4 percent above the original plan. Revenues rose 3.7 percent while expenditures climbed 5.4 percent. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu extended a special levy on companies with over €1 billion in revenue, expected to raise €7.3 billion, and an extended tax on high incomes yielding roughly €650 million. Fitch downgraded France from AA− to A+, citing debt burden, political uncertainty, and the absence of a sustainable stabilization path. Government spending stands at 57 percent of GDP. Divergent signals emerged elsewhere in the eurozone, including positive employment surprises in Spain.
Domestically, US factory orders fell 0.3 percent month-over-month in June, versus expectations of a 0.2 percent gain. Core factory orders (excluding transports) dropped 0.4 percent month-over-month. Orders excluding defense also fell 0.4 percent. The Manufacturing PMI reached four-year highs. ISM respondents reported strong demand in AI, semiconductor, electronics, machinery, and defense sectors, while metals, transportation, chemicals, and consumer-facing sectors reported weak demand, tariffs, higher costs, and pricing pressures. Some commentary also noted a decline of 75,000 manufacturing jobs alongside the figures.
Geopolitics
Kyiv was struck overnight by at least 20 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles, five Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles, and two KN-23 ballistic missiles launched from Bryansk, Kursk, Voronezh, and Rostov Oblasts, according to open-source tracking. Every missile reportedly impacted, with no Patriot interceptors launched. According to reports, Ukraine has run out of Patriot interceptors. Fires broke out in Kyiv and Brovary, hitting a Nova Poshta warehouse, logistics warehouses, military factories, and an Epicentr shopping center.
Speaking of Ukraine, IRGC Major General Mohsen Rezaee said Tehran called off retaliatory strikes on three sites in Ukraine after Kyiv apologized for a July 25 drone attack on an Iranian commercial ship in the Caspian Sea that killed one sailor. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his Ukrainian counterpart described the attack as unintentional and demanded compensation.
Meanwhile, a US military delegation led by Maj. Gen. Claude Tudor signed an agreement with Puntland President Saeed Abdullahi Deni on Sunday to expand the American military presence at Bosaso, which could be used as a launchpad for operations against the Houthis. The US has been operating from a UAE-built airbase there, and the deal bypassed the US-backed federal government in Mogadishu. Tudor also met officials in Somaliland. President Trump has overseen at least 124 airstrikes in Somalia in 2025.
Privacy & Surveillance
According to a MarketWatch piece by G. Contino, employers are deploying AI and big data to determine the lowest wage a candidate will accept. Algorithms analyze credit scores, ZIP codes, payday loan history, credit card balances, and online behavior. Some observers framed such practices as standard free-market negotiation now aided by AI on both sides.
Environment
A peer-reviewed study led by Dr. Liliane Burkhard of the University of Bern, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, simulated 1,000 years of earthquake cycles on the southern San Andreas and San Jacinto systems. Modeled Coulomb stress at Cajon Pass reached 3.6 megapascals on the San Jacinto-Bernardino segment and 2.8 on the San Andreas Mojave South segment. Caltech’s Lucy Jones said a magnitude-7.8 event could occur at any time. However, other analysts cautioned that short-term earthquake prediction remains impossible despite elevated stress levels.
Sources
France’s €107B Deficit: Euro Debt Crisis on the Horizon?
We are witnessing the first signs of a new euro debt crisis emerging on the horizon.
Source
US Bolsters Puntland Base, Bypassing Mogadishu for Yemen Ops
The US-Puntland deal bypassed the US-backed federal government in Mogadishu.
Source
Oil Traders Bet on Phantom Iran Deal as Prices Tumble
Oil markets price in an Iran deal that does not exist yet.
Source
Cajon Pass Faults Hit Record Stress: “It Could Be Tomorrow”
It could be tomorrow.
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US Factory Orders Plunge as AI Hype Masks Broader Weakness
Simply put, the AI supply chain is booming, Defense is enthused; the rest is not.
Source
Aramco Profits Surge 33% as Hormuz Closure Triggers Historic Oil Supply Shock
Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil producer by volume, reported a 33% jump in second-quarter profits on Tuesday as the war-driven surge in Brent crude, which averaged $97 a barrel, boosted earnings.
Source
Iran Scraps Ukraine Strike After Kiev Apology for Ship Attack
“We were set to strike three sites in Ukraine, but canceled the attack following Ukraine’s apology,” Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Major General Mohsen Rezaee said Monday.
Source
Kyiv Hit by Unintercepted Russian Missiles as Patriots Run Out
Every single missile impacted. Not a single Patriot interceptor missile was launched, as Kyiv has now completely run out.
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Iran Rejects Axios Report of US Deal on Strait of Hormuz
Iran has rejected Axios’ report that the U.S., Iran, and Oman are close to a Strait of Hormuz deal
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Yen Carry Trade Dies as Japan’s Debt Burden Looms Large
The Yen carry trade is dying.
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Surveillance Wages: AI Mines Your Data to Offer the Lowest Pay You’ll Accept
Employers are using AI to determine how desperate you are and give you the lowest possible wage.
Source
In addition to sources submitted by community members, the following were also used in the creation of this report: @iamalijandro, David Millette, @O4SI5, Al Arabiya English, @muse_mule, and @video4me.
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