DALLAS — Top Republicans are scrambling to shore up their Senate map in Alaska, Texas and other red states — and are privately acknowledging they could very well lose in Georgia and North Carolina.
As GOP lawmakers, candidates and party officials gather for their midterm convention in Dallas, their conversations reveal how the party is thinking about their chances in the battle for the upper chamber, less than two months from Election Day.
THE TOP TARGETS
Senate Majority Leader John Thune ticked through a handful of battleground states he’s confident about in a closed-door lunch on Thursday — he’s particularly focused on Alaska, Maine and Michigan.
The meeting was hosted by the Senate Leadership Fund, the Senate’s top GOP super PAC, and was used to rally Republican donors, according to two people in the room who were granted anonymity to share details of the private discussions.
Republicans are bullish about their chances of holding their seat in Maine after the Democratic side devolved into chaos over the summer, when Graham Plater suspended his campaign following an allegation of sexual assault, which he denies. Now, a largely untested, progressive Troy Jackson is looking to unseat five-term GOP Sen. Susan Collins.
In Alaska, Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is locked in a tight race with Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, but they are optimistic about his prospects in the state that President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024.
Michigan is another opportunity: Republicans have been leaning into attacks warning of the takeover of socialism this cycle. They are spending heavily to boost Republican Mike Rogers, who is running against progressive Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee who’s backed by the Democratic Socialists of America and who has become a boogeyman for Republicans.
TEXAS IS FOR TRUMP
Senior Republicans also indicated they would continue to leave shoring up imperiled Ken Paxton in Texas largely to Trump, given that he helped unseat Sen. John Cornyn by backing Paxton in the primary.
Trump said in his convention speech Wednesday night that he would help boost Paxton. His affiliated super PAC, MAGA Inc. has already started spending in Texas to shore up the Republican. Senate Leadership Fund, which publicly backed Cornyn during the GOP primary, has not announced any spending in Texas.
THE PROBLEM CHILDREN
Georgia, where Republican Rep. Mike Collins is facing rising Democratic star Sen. Jon Ossoff, didn’t come up in the SLF meeting with Thune, according to the people. One of the people who was in the room later told POLITICO that North Carolina would be “tough.”
Republicans have been increasingly worried about Collins falling behind in Georgia and Whatley, a former RNC chair, in North Carolina. Public polling shows both candidates trailing their Democratic opponents. They are also both being outraised on the candidate level, but Republicans have a substantial overall fundraising advantage — buoyed in large part by Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC.
Sen. Rick Scott, a former NRSC chair, said in an interview at the convention this week that if the Georgia GOP gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson “runs an unbelievable race in Georgia, he gives Mike Collins an opportunity possibly to beat Ossoff.” He also painted North Carolina as “probably one of the hardest ones,” given that Whatley is facing popular former Gov. Roy Cooper for an open seat.
Democrats need to hold onto all of their seats — including defending the open seat in Michigan — while also flipping four GOP-held ones to gain control of the upper chamber. Republicans are also eager to boost John Sununu in New Hampshire after his primary win this week, as they work to beat back serious challenges in Ohio and Iowa.
Collins and Whatley both welcomed additional financial support coming into the final stretch of their races in interviews during the convention.
“Listen, we’ll always make a case for more money,” Collins told POLITICO he left a closed-door meeting with the NRSC, SLF head Alex Latcham and top Senate Republicans on Wednesday.
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