Very few Americans are losing their jobs to layoffs, data from the Department of Labor indicated Thursday.
The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits inched up to 200,000 last week. That was above the prior week’s revised 190,000 but below expectations for 210,00.
By historical standards, it has been rare for jobless claims—which are a proxy for layoffs—to fall this low. It suggests that employers are holding on to their workforces despite headwinds such as high interest rates and the sharp rise in gasoline and energy prices stemming from the Iran war.
Holding on to this low level is even rarer. The four-week moving average of new claims fell to 203,250, 4,500 below the prior week’s average. That indicates an extraordinary level of job security for American workers. In data going back to 1967, claims have only been this low or lower three percent of the time.
The low rate of layoffs is even more striking because the size of the workforce has more than doubled since 1967. Adjusted for the number of people working, the current four-week average is unprecedented outside of the post-pandemic era and the first Trump term.
Hiring surged in March, with employers hiring more than 5.5 million workers, the most in over a year. This was particularly notable because of the low pace of the growth of the U.S. labor force, due in part to President Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration.
The number of workers who remain on unemployment after the first week fell by 10,000 to 1,766,000. That is also low by historical standards. The insured unemployment rate, which measures only those receiving benefits rather than all out-of-work Americans seeking a job, was unchanged at 1.2 percent, better than it has been roughly 90 percent of the time in weekly data going back to 1971.
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