Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-MI) heads into Tuesday’s Democrat primary as the underdog against a Sanders-backed democratic socialist, with polling and prediction markets pointing to the wealthy incumbent losing his Detroit seat to the party’s insurgent left.

Thanedar faces state Rep. Donavan McKinney in the August 4 primary for Michigan’s 13th Congressional District, a contest that has become a proxy war between the Democrat establishment and the surging Democratic Socialists of America.

A mid-July Data for Progress survey put Thanedar up 46-42. But the lead was soft. Once voters saw biographies of both candidates, McKinney flipped it and led 48-41. Prediction markets tell a bleaker story for the incumbent. The day...

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