Are Americans feeling worse this holiday season than in recent years? That’s the narrative emerging from the legacy press but there’s very little to support it.
The Associated Press published a widely distributed story this week claiming American shoppers face economic conditions this holiday season that “look very similar” to December 2022, when inflation hit a four-decade high. But an examination of the polling data reveals the news organization strategically omitted asking key questions about holiday shopping behavior in 2023 and 2024, while using loaded language and selective anecdotes to manufacture a narrative of Trump-era economic failure.
The December 12 story, doesn’t lead with the consumer perceptions and shopping behaviors the poll actually measured. Instead, it opens with an editorial verdict presented as objective reality: “This holiday season isn’t quite so merry for American shoppers as large shares are dipping into savings, scouring for bargains and feeling like the overall economy is stuck in a rut under President Donald Trump.”
The framing embeds a political conclusion in the scene-setting itself, treating “stuck in a rut under President Donald Trump” as the baseline reality rather than an obviously anti-Trump interpretation of the data.
Within paragraphs, the story shifts from reporting sentiment to asserting causation. “Trump’s series of tariffs have added to inflationary pressures and generated anxiety about the stability of the U.S. economy,” the reporters write, presenting this as established fact without quantifying the tariff effect, distinguishing between price levels and inflation rates, or providing economic analysis.
In fact, tariffs do not appear to be meaningfully adding to inflationary pressures. A recent study by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco found that 150 years of tariff data indicated tariffs do not cause inflation. Durable goods prices, as measured by the personal consumption expenditure prices index, fell in each of the three months through September, the last data available.
The story is thick with loaded language that signals editorial posture rather than neutral reporting: Trump officials plan to send the president “barnstorming” to “buck up” people’s faith; the findings are a “sobering assessment”; Trump’s message creates a “jarring contrast”; the job market has entered a “deep freeze.” This is narrative construction, not economic journalism.
What the story omits is more revealing than what it includes. AP-NORC asked questions about shopping behaviors—including whether people are “shopping for nonessential items” less than usual or “delaying big purchases”—only in December 2021 and December 2025, skipping the intervening years entirely, according to the poll’s topline results.
The polling organization did track overall economic sentiment annually during those gap years. That data, buried in the technical appendix, shows Americans’ view of the economy improved from 25 percent saying it was “good” in December 2022 to 32 percent in December 2024—a 28 percent increase. The current figure of 31 percent is virtually unchanged from Biden’s final year.
By choosing not to ask the shopping behavior questions in 2023 and 2024, AP-NORC created what amounts to an analytical void. Without those data points, it’s impossible to determine whether Americans felt even more squeezed during Biden’s final two years or whether conditions have improved under Trump.
The AP story repeatedly emphasizes what Americans have “noticed.” Eighty-seven percent noticed higher grocery prices, 69 percent noticed higher electricity prices, 63 percent noticed higher holiday gift prices.
But it buries evidence that contradicts its “stuck in a rut” thesis. The share of those noticing higher grocery prices has actually declined from 95 percent in 2022. The poll found just 49 percent noticed higher gas prices compared to 83 percent who said the same in December 2022. The share noticing higher gift prices declined from 69 percent three years ago. By these measures, we’re not “stuck in a rut” but improving under President Trump.
The AP story has been republished by dozens of news outlets nationwide, including hundreds of local newspapers that subscribe to AP’s wire service. Each used nearly identical framing, emphasizing Trump’s struggles with inflation and consumer sentiment, creating what amounts to a synchronized narrative across the media landscape.
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