The Wisconsin governor primary has some progressives sweating.
Democratic socialist Francesca Hong, widely considered the front-runner heading into Tuesday, is essentially tied with Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley. Crowley’s own allies are surprised by his strength — and Hong is underwater in bellwether suburban counties and rural areas across the state.
One Democratic operative working on progressive campaigns said they were stunned by how “poorly” Hong was performing. The person, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, added that half of the contacts in their phone were “pulling their hair out upset” while the other half “are like thank god we might avoid this test” of progressive strength in a battleground general election.
“I think it’s definitely going to be a disappointment,” said a progressive Democratic official in Wisconsin, granted anonymity to share private concerns. “Kelda Roys staying in the race really helped Crowley.”
The not-so-dominant results trickling in come after a divisive primary in which Hong faced questions over her electability in November against Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany in a critical swing state.
Even national progressive leaders like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) sat out of Wisconsin’s gubernatorial primary, despite endorsing other progressive candidates in primaries throughout the spring and summer. Some within their circles have privately raised questions about the effectiveness of Hong’s messaging, as she walks back past social media posts about defunding the police and canceling Thanksgiving.
“[This] feels kind of like the 2020 presidential primary, where after a few previews of revolution, the voters had to step up and stop the madness with a consolidation assist from adults in the room — including AOC and Bernie for not endorsing Hong,” said Liam Kerr, whose centrist Welcome PAC backed Rebecca Cooke in Wisconsin’s 3rd District but not the governor’s race.
Some progressives are warning to not read too closely into the tea leaves of Wisconsin’s governor’s race.
“This was a local race, not a nationalized race,” said one progressive Democratic strategist, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Bernie, AOC, and most national groups stayed out. In order to show economic populists can win swing states, we need perfect test cases.”
The nail-biter in Wisconsin’s governor’s race comes exactly one week after progressive Abdul El-Sayed just narrowly eked out a victory in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary — despite having led by double-digit margins in public polls in the weeks prior to the election.
“Public polling is very bad, it’s terrible,” said Mark Longabaugh, a progressive Democratic strategist and former adviser to Sanders. “Why do we even pay attention to it?”
Hong, in the lead up to Tuesday, was also leading Crowley in public polls by double digits. Kerr said that the primaries in both Michigan and Wisconsin showed how much “volatility there is when there is no competitive GOP primary and a competitive Democratic primary featuring one candidate who repels independents.”
“Many Democratic primary voters may want to touch the hot stove, but the independents who can vote in Democratic primaries can turn out in large enough numbers to slap their hand away,” he said.
Meredith Lee Hill and Jessica Piper contributed to this report.
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