US-Israel strikes and Tehran’s retaliation are pushing oil and gas facility damage costs toward $50 billion, Rystad Energy projects
The US-Israel war on Iran could push regional repair costs in the Middle East to as much as $58 billion, with oil and gas facilities alone accounting for up to $50 billion, according to an analysis released by energy research firm Rystad.
However, the report stresses that the main constraint is not funding but limited global capacity to supply key equipment and engineering services, which could delay repairs for years.
Rystad’s estimate marks a sharp increase from the initial $25 billion projection the firm issued three weeks ago, reflecting the broader scope of damage before the April 8 ceasefire between the US and Iran.
“Repair work does not create new capacity. It redirects existing capacity, and that redirection will be felt in project delays and into inflation far beyond the Middle East,” Rystad senior analyst Karan Satwani said.
“The $58 billion bill is the headline, but the knock-on effects on energy investment timelines globally may prove just as significant,” Satwani highlighted.
Rystad said total repair spending is likely to average around $46 billion, with downstream refining and petrochemical assets accounting for the largest share due to the scale and complexity of the damage. Industrial, power, and desalination facilities could add $3 billion to $8 billion, with recovery timelines diverging across assets and countries due to differences in execution capacity and supply chain constraints.
Iran faces the most extensive damage, with costs potentially reaching $19 billion across gas processing, refining, and export infrastructure, the company said. Qatar’s impact, meanwhile, is seen as more concentrated but technically complex, centered on the Ras Laffan LNG hub, where repairs may coincide with ongoing expansion projects.
Tehran plans to seek compensation from five Arab states – Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia – for damage from the latest military standoff, Iran’s UN envoy Amir Saeid Iravani told Tasnim. He said the countries acted as “co-participants” with the US and Israel and breached their obligations toward Iran.
Last week, the Iranian Red Crescent Society reported that 125,630 civilian units had been affected by the war, including 100,000 residential homes, some of them completely destroyed. It also cited damage to 23,500 commercial properties, 339 medical facilities, 32 universities, 857 schools, and 20 Red Crescent centers.
IRCS head Pir Hossein Kolivand stressed that around 15 major logistical sites, including fuel depots, airports, and civilian aircraft, had been hit, highlighting widespread disruption to transport, energy, and public services.
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