Reports from UK power networks ahead of the winter peak in energy demands say suuply margins should be sufficient but note “tight days” possible, with a reliance on imports as the UK runs down its domestic gas extraction and demolishes would-be backup power plants.
The National Energy System Operator (NESO), the electricity delivery body created by Britain’s left-wing government to “[deliver] our mission to make Britain a clean energy superpower”, and the National Gas network both released winter outlook reports on Thursday, each stating they are satisfied they are prepared for the coming months but revealing the potential for problems if foreseeable stressor events occur simultaneously.
Energy margins are “expected to be adequate” this winter, NESO said, while acknowledging “we may still observe some tight days” in early December or mid-January. Yet the model used to predict events assumes any potential events that could erode British generating capacity — such as bad weather taking out renewables — doesn’t also impact the rest of Western Europe, so that the UK’s capacity to import energy through vast underwater power cables will be uninterrupted.
This is short-sighted, increasingly prominent energy analyst Kathryn Porter says, reports The Daily Telegraph, which notes she states that if a period of cloudy, still weather hits northern Europe then “all bets are off”. Porter has previously been particularly critical of the rush for renewables and the impact this had on Spain’s power networks when the entire country was disconnected from electricity for a whole day, saying it went too far too fast and didn’t give the network time to mature the new technology before becoming dependent on it.
NESO stated of such a scenario: “Great Britain has a secure and resilient electricity system… our analysis shows that a combination of factors – including periods of cold weather with low wind, low interconnector imports and high levels of generator outages – would be required for a period of low operational surplus to materialise”. It says the daily chance of this is low, between half a percent and one and a half per cent every 24 hours, but over a 150-day winter season, the probability accumulates.
The same day, NESO’s partner body responsible for the gas distribution system also published a report emphasising that everything will probably be alright, while also revealing the apparent impact of Britain’s left-wing government’s dogged pursual of net zero energy policies on system resilience.
Most notable was the revelation that the gas supply margin this winter is the lowest in years and down by 34 per cent over last year, a change the body attributes to the dwindling supply of gas being extracted from the North Sea. That closing down its own oil and gas field is so damaging for Britain has seen the issue become a political controversy nationally, with Reform leader Nigel Farage vowing to get drilling, and U.S. President Trump repeatedly telling the UK to undertake a change of course.
Meanwhile, industry groups have lobbied the government to permit energy extraction in the UK again, saying a considerable proportion of demand could be met domestically.
National Gas wargamed potential gas supply crisis scenarios and stated while it was “very unlikely” that two black swan events could take place simultaneously, nevertheless they were considering the possibility of losing a major piece of infrastructure at the same time as a historic cold snap. Should that once-in-20-years winter happen at the same time as a major part of the national system being lost to breakdown, accident, or even sabotage, the gas supply margin for this winter falls to just one fifth of what it would have been in a comparable incident this time last year, an extremely tight situation for the country.
These developments come as the United Kingdom embarks on something of a scorched earth policy towards comparatively responsive backup systems that had been held in reserve in previous winters, but which are now being dynamited at pace. Coal has been out of the normal national mix of power generation for some years now, but the speed at which on-standby coal stations can be brought up to full load to cover an unanticipated shortfall in generation and the ease with which the fuel can be stockpiled had seen it maintained as a winter backup.
Indeed, 1960s-vintage power plants were brought online on command to cover tight margins several times in recent winters. Yet they have now all powered down for good, cut off from the national grid and are being demolished. Indeed, just days before today’s announcement of potential “tight days”, fresh footage of some of the final coal-powered power stations in the UK being dramatically dynamited was published.
Just last year, the UK power grid activated its blackout prevention system for the first time in two years just days after the last coal power station in the country disconnected. As reported at the time:
The reasons for these are simple and not exactly uncommon: the United Kingdom is experiencing cold, still weather, leading to more energy being used for domestic heating while wind turbines stand unproductive.
In the early hours of Sunday morning windmills were producing over 60 per cent of the nation’s power, but as the wind dropped this fell to as little as five per cent. Even now, wind accounts for less than ten per cent of national demand, leaving gas to pick up the slack. Burning gas accounted for 56 per cent of power generated on Monday morning, and it has already swung back up to 53 per cent on Monday afternoon just as the evening surge begins.
… At midday Monday, demand for electricity was five gigawatts higher than the same time on Sunday, the equivalent to two recently-shut-down coal power plants working at maximum generating capacity.
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