Moscow has outpaced Saudi Arabia as Chinese demand drives record imports, trading data has shown
Russia’s seaborne crude shipments to China hit a record 1.86 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, up 46% year-on-year amid falling Indian imports and rising US pressure on New Delhi to curb Russian oil purchases.
In response to Western sanctions, Russia has rerouted most of its energy exports to Asia, particularly to India and China. Moscow’s energy exports to China are expected to keep rising, driven by strong demand, Aleksandr Daniltsev, Director of the Trade Policy Institute at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE), told RT on Tuesday.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened secondary sanctions and tariffs on countries purchasing Russian energy. Last week, he removed a 25% tariff on India, saying that it has agreed to stop receiving Russian oil.
“Physical volumes are increasing steadily,” Daniltsev said, noting that price trends will affect the value of imports. He added that China’s diversification of energy sources and development of low-carbon technologies could limit Russian growth, but “the overall trend will remain upward,” he said.
The shift pushed Moscow past Saudi Arabia to become China’s top crude supplier for the month. Russia’s seaborne shipments were 46% higher than Saudi Arabia’s roughly 1.2 million bpd in January, despite Riyadh’s long-standing role as China’s main seaborne supplier, data from energy analytics firm Kpler showed.
Over the past decade, China’s total energy imports more than doubled, while imports from Russia rose more than fourfold, Daniltsev stated.
Middle East developments could also boost Russia’s role, according to Daniltsev. “If tensions escalate, for example with Iran, a key supplier to China, Russia’s importance could increase further,” he said.
The rise in Russian supplies follows weaker Indian and Turkish demand amid sanctions and trade pressures. China is also reportedly ramping up its imports of Urals crude, a major Russian export grade, to levels not seen since mid-2023.
Deepening energy ties between Moscow and Beijing are reshaping the Asian oil trade, experts say. Despite Western sanctions, Russia is exporting record volumes to its largest buyer, while China is securing discounted supply with limited additional risk, traders said. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Monday that with the US creating “artificial barriers” to trade and energy, BRICS nations need to look for new, secure ways to advance financial, economic, and infrastructure projects.
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