Probability Numbers from Recent Illinois Elections Exceed Number of Seconds Since the BIG BANG!

With midterms just over a year away there is plenty in the news cycle to keep the algorithms spinning people into a frenzy. Election integrity may not be top of mind following the political assassination of Charlie Kirk, the indictment of James Comey, or Jimmy Kimmel crying about his suspension. However, election integrity remains a major priority of the Trump administration.

Americans are suspicious about election integrity after 2020 because sometimes the numbers don’t make sense. Illinois is a perfect example of warranted suspicion by the public.

Following the 2020 election the American public watched as Christopher Krebs the Director of CISA (Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency) claimed, “…the 2020 election was the most secure in U.S. history.” However, in the very same testimony Krebs admitted, “…as you move out from election day, there will be tabulators that… uh… that may have internet connections to transmit the vote from the precinct to the county level, to the state…” Watch a clip of Krebs admitting as much in his testimony to Congress reported by CBS here.

It turns out there is plenty to question. As electionfraud20.org notes in forensic detail, in every swing state there were multiple problems. Issues such as break in chain of custody, voter roll anomalies, unobserved ballot counting, unobserved ballot adjudication, duplicate ballots, counties where ballot tallies did not match records, vote spikes of 95% to Biden, more votes counted than individuals recorded as voting and the list goes on.

This information was always available. The main weapon of the media has been to obfuscate. As it pertains to election machines, the biggest question mark in 2020 may have come from Antrim County Michigan. As reported by the Washington Examiner, Biden had won the traditionally Republican voting County. However, according to state and election officials, a “glitch” caused by “human error” was the non-fraudulent explanation for recounts showing Trump had won the county. Further audits and investigation would suggest otherwise. This among many other stories would call into question the legitimacy of election machines.

Fast forward to April 2025 during the municipal elections in Illinois. One of the most common contentions of 2020 was suspicion raised by statistical anomalies and extremely low probability of counted outcomes. Illinois has become a Democrat stronghold over the years. Even so, no one expected that the recent municipal elections in April of 2025 would result in 222 of 280 Democrat wins, a 79% margin of victory, among local candidates according to the Chicago Sun-Times. The article goes on the mention that, “This was the first off-year election of permanent vote by mail after years of compiling participants.” It goes on to assert that Democrats have much more trust in vote by mail. This somehow represents a benefit for Democrats in holding such an outsized margin of victory this past April.

There is one citizen who has done a simple analysis of the data directly from the county websites. Significant concerns of statistical anomalies would require more of an explanation than just vote by mail “confidence” from Democrats. Take the recent X posts from an account going by the name, Election Nark. For example, the below post highlights DuPage County, a collar county of Chicago’s neighboring Cook County. Across three different Townships, Democrat registered voter candidates supposedly received a uniform ranking of percentage of votes across the four different vote types of total votes, early votes, vote by mail, and election day votes. AI calculated the odds of this at 1 in 268 billion.

The odds decrease as the analysis continues across two more township races for trustee positions. The public is supposed to believe that Democrat registered voter candidates, across 5 different townships, with different populations and different demographics rank within a percentage point of each other winning all seats, while Republican registered voter candidates rank within a percentage point of each other losing all seats. It cannot be stressed enough that this pattern is consistent across 5 different voting populations. This is seemingly impossible, and AI agrees. AI calculates the odds of this as (1 in 4.534 × 10^{46} or 1 in 4.426 × 10^{43}). In other words, a number that exceeds the number of seconds since the Big Bang.

What about that vote-by-mail advantage? Interestingly, Election Nark shows the same pattern emerging when vote-by-mail is analyzed. This time a comparison is done between vote by mail ballots counted as of election day and vote by mail ballots counted between election day and the last day of counting on April 15^th. In two different races, one for Downers Grove Village Trustee, and one for Lisle Township trustee the percentage of total vote by mail votes both as of April 1^st and after counting stopped on April 15^th are within a percentage point for each candidate while also maintaining the ranking from first to last for each candidate after both counts. In both races all Democrat registered voter candidates won and all Republican registered voter candidates lost. It is incredible for this result to happen in two different races. And yet, Election Nark has shown this pattern across 9 different township races in DuPage County! See the X post below:

The odds are unbelievable to say the least. One could claim that perhaps this is an issue with just DuPage County. That would require another article to address. However, Election Nark shows the very same patterns across multiple counties in Illinois including Cook, Kendall, Lake, and Will counties. All the data is sourced from the County websites. When these patterns arise within one county amongst multiple races the odds that random chance was the result are astronomically low. If this astronomically low probability of pattern consistency is shown across multiple counties logic would suggest an investigation is warranted. There is certainly more to report on this subject. Stay tuned.