A newly released Oregon survey shows Republican Christine Drazan ahead of incumbent Democrat Gov. Tina Kotek, placing the GOP within reach of capturing a governor’s office it has not won since 1982.
Drazan received 48 percent support to Kotek’s 44 percent in the statewide ballot test, according to the Public Opinion Strategies poll. The four-point lead matches the survey’s stated margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
The pollster described 48 percent as a “winnable threshold” with third-party candidates in the field, although the ballot-test graphic displays only the results for Drazan and Kotek.
Drazan posted her strongest results outside the Portland media market. She led Kotek 49 percent to 45 percent in Eugene, 56 percent to 29 percent in Medford, and 54 percent to 40 percent in smaller designated market areas.
Kotek held a one-point advantage in the left-leaning Portland media market, receiving 46 percent to Drazan’s 45 percent.
The survey also found widespread dissatisfaction with the direction of the state and Kotek’s performance in office.
Fifty-nine percent of respondents said Oregon was on the wrong track compared with 38 percent who said it was moving in the right direction. Three percent were unsure.
Kotek’s job approval rating was underwater by 19 points. Thirty-eight percent approved of her performance as governor, while 57 percent disapproved.
According to the pollster, voters repeatedly said in open-ended comments that Kotek had not delivered on a range of issues.
The survey found that 66 percent of Oregon voters believe change is necessary. Thirty-eight percent said they wanted “a great deal” of change from the state’s next governor, while another 28 percent wanted “quite a bit.”
The desire for change extended beyond Republican voters. Ninety-four percent of Republicans, 66 percent of non-affiliated voters, and 44 percent of Democrats said change is necessary.
Among voters who want change, Drazan led Kotek by 65 percent to 25 percent.
Public Opinion Strategies conducted a telephone survey of 600 Oregon voters from June 22 through June 24, 2026. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
A Drazan victory would mark a major political shift because Oregon has not elected a Republican governor since 1982. Drazan nearly broke that streak in 2022, when three polls released in the closing weeks of the race showed her narrowly leading Kotek. Nelson Research placed Drazan ahead 33.4 percent to 31.5 percent, an Oregonian-commissioned survey showed a 32 percent to 31 percent lead, and Clout Research had her ahead 38 percent to 35 percent. The Clout poll also showed Drazan leading among unaffiliated voters, while pollsters said independent candidate Betsy Johnson’s presence may have drawn support away from Kotek. Kotek ultimately won the election.
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