A survey conducted by Datafolha and published by local outlets on Sunday found that a majority of Brazilians believe that conservative former President Jair Bolsonaro should serve the remainder of his sentence under house arrest over a prison cell.
Bolsonaro, 71, is presently serving a 27 year prison sentence for alleged “crimes against democracy” after the nation’s top court, the Supreme Federal Tribunal (STF) found him guilty of allegedly conspiring with others to stage a purported “coup” to overturn the results of the 2022 presidential election that he narrowly lost against current socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
The former president had been serving his sentence at the Regional Superintendency of the Federal Police in Brasília from November 2025 to January 2026. At the time, he was transferred to a prison cell inside Papudinha (“Little Papuda”), located inside the larger Papuda Prison Complex in the Brazilian capital.
Over the past months, Bolsonaro’s legal team filed several requests to STF Justice Alexandre de Moraes seeking humanitarian house arrest provisions for the former President, who faces numerous health conditions and recurring complications directly stemming from a 2018 failed assassination that has so far necessitated several surgeries to address.
Following repeated refusals, de Moraes finally granted humanitarian house arrest to Bolsonaro in late March after Bolsonaro was diagnosed with bacterial bronchopneumonia in both of his lungs — which left the former President hospitalized at an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) at a hospital in the Brazilian capital for roughly two weeks.
De Moraes, however, granted the house arrest provisions under “temporary” 90-day conditions, with further extensions subject to subsequent medical examination of Bolsonaro’s health. In addition, the STF Justice imposed restrictions to Bolsonaro that prevent him from engaging in direct contact with politicians and allies. The 90-day house arrest period began on March 27, the day Bolsonaro was discharged from the DF Star Hospital in Brasília.
On Sunday, Brazilian outlets such as Metrópoles, Poder 360, UOL, and CNN Brasil published the results of Datafolha’s survey, which found that 59 percent of respondents expressed that Bolsonaro should remain under house arrest and no return to a prison cell. 37 percent answered that they believe he should serve his sentence in prison, while 5 percent said that they did not know how to answer. The poll, reportedly registered at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), was conducted by Datafolha between April 7-9.
Metrópoles detailed that, at a political spectrum level, 94 percent of the respondents who identified as supporters of Bolsonaro said they support house arrest, while 53 percent of those who identified as centrists also expressed support for the measure against 41 percent who oppose it. Among those who identified as members of the ruling Workers’ Party (PT), 68 percent said that they want to see Bolsonaro return to prison.
Poder 360 pointed out that de Moraes, in its March ruling, argued that Bolsonaro’s recovery from bacterial pneumonia could take anywhere between 45 and 90 days, and assertion he reportedly issued citing medical information and Bolsonaro’s 71 years of age.
“After that deadline, the court will reassess whether the necessary requirements for maintaining humanitarian house arrest are still met, including a medical examination if necessary,” the STF Justice reportedly wrote in the ruling.
De Moraes also imposed a series of strict conditions for Bolsonaro’s house arrest provisions. As per its terms, Bolsonaro must wear an electronic ankle monitor at all times, with his sons, Flávio, Carlos, and Jair Renan Bolsonaro being able to visit him “under the same legal conditions as the prison facility.”
Former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro, their daughter Laura, and Bolsonaro’s step daughter Letícia Marianna Firmo da Silva are exempt from requiring court authorization, as they reside in the same household as the former President. Other visits beyond immediate family members, lawyers, and doctors were suspended throughout the 90-day period.
In addition, Bolsonaro is banned from using any kind of cell phone, telephone, or any other means or communications device, “directly or through third parties.” Cell phones of any individual visiting Jair Bolsonaro must be handed over to police officers, and all images, videos, or social media posts featuring Bolsonaro are prohibited from being published by order of Justice de Moraes.
As per the terms of his conviction, Jair Bolsonaro is banned for running for public office until 2060, at which point, if he is still alive, he will be 105 years old. On December 25, Christmas Day, Jair Bolsonaro, moments before he underwent a new surgery, signed a handwritten letter declaring his son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, as his political successor.
Polls released over the past weeks indicate that the younger Bolsonaro has been narrowing the lead against President Lula da Silva, who is running for reelection in October’s presidential elections.
A new poll published by Datafolha over the weekend indicated that both Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva are “technically tied” in a prospective presidential runoff scenario. Under such scenario, according to Datafolha, Bolsonaro would obtain 46 percent against Lula’s 45 percent, with 8 percent of respondents stating that they would instead cast a blank or invalid vote or vote for neither, and with one percent expressing that they are still undecided.
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