The results of a Brazilian presidential election poll released on Monday indicate that incumbent radical leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and conservative Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro are “technically tied” ahead of October’s presidential election.
Brazil will hold its general election on October 4. On that day, over 158 million Brazilians are called to head to the polls and choose their president for the next four years.
The upcoming presidential election will feature 13 different candidates. However, all polls released over the past months suggest that the election will be largely defined by a race between President Lula, who is seeking a fourth term, and Sen. Bolsonaro, son of conservative former President Jair Bolsonaro. Should no candidate obtain the required majority of the votes to win in the first round on October 4, a runoff between the two most-voted candidates will take place on October 25.
The Brazilian polling firm Nexus released the results of its most recent survey on Monday morning. According to the results, Lula would obtain 46 percent of the votes against Bolsonaro’s 45 percent in a prospective runoff scenario.
The difference, Nexus reportedly explained, is within the survey’s two-percent margin of error — leaving Lula and Bolsonaro “technically tied” in the upcoming race. Nexus conducted the survey between Friday, August 21, and Sunday, August 23.
Although the results of Nexus’ most-recent survey indicate that Lula is projected to win the first round of the presidential election with 41 percent of the votes, the incumbent president would fall short of the majority required to win in the first round. The results also indicate that Sen. Bolsonaro has been steadily narrowing Lula’s lead in the polls over the past month. A poll released by Nexus in July reportedly indicated that Lula would defeat Bolsonaro with a four percent vote difference in a prospective runoff scenario.
Nexus’s latest survey also measured other prospective runoff scenarios between Lula and some of the other candidates. The firm found that the incumbent President would win in each of the prospective runoff scenarios outside of the “technical tie” scenario with Flávio Bolsonaro.
Nexus’ latest survey also measured the disapproval ratings of the competing presidential candidates. According to Jovem Pan, the firm found that 49 percent of the respondents expressed that they would not vote for President Lula under any circumstances. Similarly, 48 percent of the respondents said they would not vote for Sen. Bolsonaro.
Asked what their perception is of the current Lula administration, 49 percent reportedly expressed their disapproval against 48 percent who answered that they approve of it.
Brazil’s 2026 presidential campaign period officially began on August 16 and will run through the start of October. On Sunday, TV Bandeirantes hosted Brazil’s first 2026 presidential debate between six of the 13 candidates. However, President Lula, Sen. Bolsonaro, and former Gov. Romeu Zema did not participate in the encounter.
UOL reports that Sen. Bolsonaro published a video on social media during the debate in which he said that although he respects all of the candidates that participated in the debate, they are “definitely not my opponents.”
“My opponent is the one who is in power and is doing everything he can to destroy the economy and the security of Brazilian families,” Bolsonaro said, without directly mentioning Lula. “You know who he is. He’s the one I want to debate.”
“And you can be sure that we’re going to get Brazil out of the red. We’re going to get families out of the red, and in October, Brazil will win,” he continued.
President Lula participated in a live interview with TV Record on Sunday night that aired at the same time as the presidential debate he did not participate in. According to GloboNews, Lula criticized President Donald Trump during the interview over the ongoing trade dispute between the United States and Brazil. The Brazilian president affirmed that he last spoke with Trump over the phone on Friday in a call he described as “very civilized, and very respectful, both from my part and his.”
Lula also referred to the ongoing corruption and influence peddling probe against his oldest son, Fabio Luis Lula da Silva. The Brazilian president affirmed that “Nobody is above the law,” but that the “Presumption of innocence must always be respected.”
Christian K. Caruzo is a Venezuelan writer and documents life under socialism. You can follow him on Twitter here.
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