Pakistan delivered a warning to Iran on Wednesday that if Tehran’s terrorist proxies in Yemen, the Houthis, continue attacking cities and oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan may be obliged to intervene under its defense pact with the Saudis.
Pakistan gave notice to Iran the day after Houthi insurgents launched drone and missile attacks against four cities in Saudi Arabia, damaging oil infrastructure and wounding dozens of civilians.
Saudi forces, working with the internationally-recognized government of Yemen, responded with airstrikes and ground action against the Houthis, who captured Yemen’s capital city of Sanaa and much other territory in 2014.
In a television interview on Wednesday, Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said that further Houthi attacks could trigger the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, a pact Pakistan signed with Saudi Arabia and Turkey in August. The pact includes a mutual defense commitment similar to NATO Article V.
“An aggression on one country will be considered an aggression on all three countries,” Asif said. “There is no ambiguity or doubt. Unprovoked aggression or spillover into Saudi Arabia will definitely make this agreement operational.”
A senior diplomatic source told Reuters the Pakistani government conveyed this message to Tehran privately within the past 24 hours, and advised the Iranians to pull the Houthis back from attacking Saudi Arabia. The response from Tehran was reportedly: “Iran does not control the Houthis.”
Two Iranian sources told Reuters that Iran actually instructed the Houthis to attack Saudi Arabia last week, promised them additional funding and weapons if they did, and sent senior officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to coordinate the operations.
Iran has grown increasingly desperate to combat the pressure of U.S. sanctions, airstrikes, and blockades by inflicting damage on U.S. allies in the region, especially on oil infrastructure.
The Pakistanis and Turkey are reportedly reluctant to take action against Iran, or to get involved in the long and brutal Yemeni civil war, but the Saudis are pressing them to honor their commitments under the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement. Officials from all three countries met in Riyadh on Wednesday and determined that any joint response will be “defensive” in nature and staged from Saudi soil.
One of Reuters’ sources said Pakistan was willing to “provide military, technical, ground, or air support within Saudi Arabia,” but “would not take part in combat operations on foreign soil.”
The Houthis attacked the cities of Abha, Khamis Mushait, and Jazan with ballistic missiles and drones on Wednesday, so far without any response from the Saudis’ coalition partners. For that matter, the Saudis themselves have not publicly announced any retaliatory actions, although Houthi media claimed at least 32 people were killed by Saudi airstrikes on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The Houthis also conducted a successful ground action in Yemen on Thursday and captured the port city of Mokha, which is about 50 miles from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a shipping chokepoint that Iran wants the Houthis to shut down. About 12 percent of the world’s shipping currently flows through the Bab el-Mandeb, including a great deal of oil.
Mokha has considerable historic and cultural significance in addition to its strategic value. It was a key port in the coffee trade beginning in the 15th Century, and the name of the popular chocolate-flavored “mocha” coffee drink was adapted from the name of the city.
Reuters reported that a triumphant video posted by the Houthis showed a group of its fighters chewing a narcotic leaf called qat and chanting “Death to America! Death to Israel!” as they celebrated the capture of Mokha.
Unconfirmed reports on Thursday said the Houthis also advanced on the city of Dhubab, which is located right on the Bab el-Madeb Strait. Forces loyal to the Yemeni government reportedly rallied to keep the Houthis away from Dhubab, which is considered essential to controlling the strait.
Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King’s College London’s School of Security Studies, told NBC News that the Houthi advances were “less evidence of extraordinary Houthi strength than of profound weakness and fragmentation across the anti-Houthi camp.”
“What is striking is how quickly government defenses appear to have unraveled once several axes came under pressure simultaneously,” he said.
Although Houthi officials said on Thursday they did not intend to close the Red Sea or Bab el-Mandeb Strait to any ships except those from Saudi Arabia, Krieg predicted Houthi capture of the strait could “effectively connect the Hormuz and Red Sea crises into one global energy-security crisis.”
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