Something called the Peter G. Peterson Foundation polled 2,500 registered voters in five states and came up with a statistical tie on the generic ballot.
According to this poll, which was taken between August 20-27, 47 percent chose the Democrat Party, while 46 percent chose the Republican Party.
What’s important is that the five states polled are those states most likely to decide who controls the U.S. Senate after the midterm elections: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.
On the generic ballot in those specific states, Republicans lead in two states, while Democrats lead in three.
In Georgia, Democrats lead by two points, 48 to 46 percent. In Michigan, Democrats lead by 3 points, 47 to 44 percent. In North Carolina, Democrats have a four-point lead, 49 to 45 percent.
Republicans lead in Ohio by a single point, 46 to 45 percent. In Texas, the GOP leads by five points, 49 to 44 percent.
At this point, who even knows what to make of all these polls, which get goofier and more chaotic the closer we come to Election Day.
As far as this specific poll, President Trump won Ohio by nearly 12 points in 2024. Are we to believe the Republican/Democrat spread there has withered down to a single point?
Trump won Texas by 14 points, but now the state is down to five points?
Meanwhile, we have polls showing the U.S. Senate race in Kansas — Kansas! — is in play.
The average nationwide results on the generic ballot, according to the RealClearPolitics polls of polls, shows Democrat up by 8.6 points, 50.5 to 41.9 percent.
Honestly, who knows about polling anymore. All we can do is wait for Election Day, really. The polls used to at least tell us something. Now there are so many, and they are all over the place. This tells me three midterm outcomes are possible: Democrats win in a blowout. Republicans perform much better than expected. Or it’s a squeaker.
Yes, I’m saying only three outcomes are possible when those are the only three possible outcomes of any election, because polling has become a joke.
One thing I know for sure is that any kind of victory for Democrats, especially in the states Trump won in 2024, will be due solely to the rise in gas prices caused by the necessary Iran War. All other economic indicators — incomes, poverty levels, job growth, domestic investment, GDP, retail sales, and crime rates — look great. But our national barometer has become the price of a gallon of gas, and there is only bad news there.
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