Over many election cycles, what’s known as the “generic congressional ballot” has been a pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty good indicator of how we can expect the U.S. House to fall during the midterm election.
This isn’t as true for U.S. Senate races, which really are their own unique things.
Another truism is that the political party in power, especially the one that holds the White House, tends to go into the midterms with a big disadvantage. The reason for this is simple: the voters who lost the White House two years earlier feel motivated to register their displeasure, while those voters who won the White House tend to be pretty...
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