A new SurveyUSA poll released this week shows Democrat Rep. Gabe Vasquez leading Republican challenger Greg Cunningham by three points in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District, a margin inside the survey’s error range.
The KOB 4-commissioned poll put Vasquez at 46 percent and Cunningham at 43 percent among 554 likely voters, with 11 percent undecided and a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 points.
That gap leaves the two candidates in a statistical tie. Vasquez, a two-term incumbent, sits below 50 percent against a first-time congressional challenger in a district Republicans have targeted as one of their strongest pickup opportunities on the 2026 map.
The poll showed the race splitting along familiar lines. Vasquez ran up his margins with women and Latino voters, leading by 13 and 20 points. Cunningham countered with men and white voters, up 5 and 11. A Marine combat veteran who later worked as an Albuquerque police detective, Cunningham wants to eat into the Latino number. “Hispanic culture is at its core a conservative culture,” he told Fox News.
The survey also measured President Donald Trump’s standing in the district, finding 39 percent viewed him favorably and 51 percent unfavorably.
Vasquez defeated former Rep. Yvette Herrell 52.1 percent to 47.9 percent in 2024, the same year Trump carried the district 49.9 percent to 48.1 percent. Ballotpedia lists the seat among 23 Trump-won districts Democrats are defending this year.
National Republicans have poured attention into the race. House Speaker Mike Johnson campaigned for Cunningham in New Mexico last week. The NRCC listed the district among five where its internal surveys showed the party leading or tied inside the margin of error.
Republicans have posted similar numbers in other targeted races, with an NRSC survey last week showing former Sen. John Sununu ahead by a point in New Hampshire’s Senate contest.
As of June 30, Vasquez had raised $3.78 million to Cunningham’s $1.51 million.
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