A poll conducted for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) found former Republican Sen. John Sununu leading Democrat Rep. Chris Pappas by a single point in New Hampshire’s open U.S. Senate race, according to a memo released this week.
The survey, conducted by GOP firm Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, put Sununu at 37 percent and Pappas at 36 percent. The one-point margin falls well within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
Pollsters David Lee and Travis Tunis argued the result undercuts assumptions about the seat.
“While the race is statistically tied and well within the survey’s margin of error, these results clearly challenge the prevailing media narrative that Democrats have a lock on New Hampshire,” the memo stated.
The memo claimed voters are taking “a fresh look” at Sununu and pointed to a large pool of persuadable voters still in play. Nearly a quarter of respondents, 23 percent, remained undecided.
Five independent candidates split low single-digit support. Aaron Day, Christine Lopez, and Tim Harris each drew one percent. Jeanne Logan Morrow and Edmond LaPlante registered below that.
Fabrizio surveyed 600 likely voters between Aug. 27 and Aug. 30. The sample was 36 percent Republican, 30 percent Democrat, and 32 percent independent.
The New Hampshire Union Leader obtained an exclusive copy of the poll and described the race as a dead heat. The paper noted it was the NRSC’s own survey. The committee endorsed Sununu upon his entry into the race, as did President Donald Trump and Senate Republican leaders.
It was the second recent poll to show Sununu ahead. A University of New Hampshire (UNH) survey released Aug. 26 put him up 45 percent to 43 percent, the first UNH poll to place him numerically ahead of Pappas. Newsweek called the back-to-back numbers a “second polling blow” for the congressman.
UNH Survey Center Director Andrew Smith described the contest as a statistical tie. Forecasters still give Democrats a slight edge on a difficult Senate map.
The two candidates have traded attack ads for weeks. Pappas has accused Sununu of losing his seat in 2008 and then cashing in on corporate boards. Sununu has said Pappas votes with House Democrat leaders nearly 100 percent of the time.
The primaries land Sept. 8. Sununu has to get past former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown. Pappas has to fend off progressive challenger Karishma Manzur. Whoever wins is running for Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s (D-NH) old seat, and control of the Senate could ride on it. Republicans have viewed New Hampshire as a pickup opportunity even as they manage their own headaches on the 2026 map.
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