A population survey by The Lancet puts the toll by early 2025 at least 25,000 higher than previously estimated
The actual number of violent deaths in Gaza from the Israel-Hamas war substantially exceeded official figures, according to an independent population-based survey conducted during the conflict.
The findings, published in The Lancet Global Health this week, suggest that the estimated number of conflict-related fatalities between October 7, 2023, and January 5, 2025, is around 35% higher than figures released by the Gaza Health Ministry.
“The combined evidence suggests that, as of Jan 5, 2025, 3-4% of the population of the Gaza Strip [some 75,000 people] had been killed violently and there have been a substantial number of non-violent deaths caused indirectly by the conflict,” the report said.
Researchers surveyed 2,000 households, representing nearly 10,000 people across Gaza, between December 2024 and January 2025, including displaced families from areas that were inaccessible due to ongoing fighting.
Despite the higher overall toll, the demographic profile of casualties closely matched official reporting. The report said that women, children, and people over 64 made up about 56% of those killed violently – broadly in line with the Health Ministry’s breakdown of fatalities.
The survey also estimated more than 16,000 non-violent deaths during the same period, including roughly 8,500 excess deaths above pre-war mortality levels. The authors said the figure was significant but far lower than projections that indirect deaths could outnumber those caused directly from fighting.
The researchers said their findings contradict claims that Gaza’s health authorities inflated casualty numbers, instead indicating that official figures were “conservative and reliable.”
The Health Ministry said this week that at least 72,063 people have been killed since the war began, as of February 16. More than 600 of those deaths, along with over 1,600 injuries, have been recorded since a US-backed ceasefire was declared in October 2025.
The Lancet study warned that conditions in Gaza deteriorated further after data collection ended in early January 2025, and cautioned that indirect deaths may have increased as humanitarian conditions worsened.
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