The Anti-Tariff Paper Everyone’s Citing—and What It Doesn’t Really Show
Well, here we go again.
A new NBER working paper is being promoted as making a decisive case against tariffs. While the controversial New York Fed study claimed that recent tariff costs were being borne by Americans, this one claims to show that tariff increases reduce trade, output, and manufacturing.
The paper, by economists Tamar den Besten and Diego R Känzig, is a serious affair. It constructs a narrative series of major U.S. tariff changes from 1840 to 2024 and estimates how tariff shocks correlate with later economic outcomes. Unlike the New York Fed’s anti-tariff…
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