TAMPA, Florida — Florida Republicans, who have watched as the Sunshine State turned from the nation’s biggest swing state to one now dominated by the GOP, will take their first steps Tuesday toward ushering in a new era following the exit of one of the party’s biggest stars, Gov. Ron DeSantis.
But the road to the primaries hasn’t been completely smooth for a party that has controlled state government since the late ’90s: DeSantis declined to endorse a successor, including his own hand-picked lieutenant governor. Gubernatorial frontrunner Rep. Byron Donalds refused to debate his GOP rivals. And President Donald Trump has handed out many coveted endorsements — but not in several key congressional races.
Along the way, there’s been an unsuccessful lawsuit filed by Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, a Republican also running for governor, to try to boot investor and provocateur James Fishback off the ballot. Donalds’ rivals sought to attack him over his long-ago criminal record when he was in college, as well as for his stock trading while in Congress. Down ballot, there’s been a barrage of negative ads running in several open seats where GOP candidates have accused their rivals of having connections to China and Democrats.
All told, Election Day will cap a contentious period for a state party used to exporting conservative ideology and policy to the rest of the nation. And ahead of the primary, Donalds and some other Republicans sound eager to put their battles behind them, with their campaign speeches already pivoting toward their likely November opponents.
“The internal fighting isn’t as much fun,” Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power, who is running for a north Florida congressional seat, said at a Donalds campaign event in the small town of Crawfordville last week. “Tuesday’s the primary night, and we get to stop fighting Republicans and we get to start fighting Democrats again.”
But there are some warning signs about what lies ahead. This year’s election marks the first time in more than 10 years that neither DeSantis nor Trump will be on the ballot. The turnout in this year’s primary could be weaker than it traditionally has been. One Republican consultant, granted anonymity to speak candidly, feared GOP turnout could wind up under 30 percent, a lower figure than in recent cycles.
Donalds enters Tuesday as the frontrunner in the governor’s race, buoyed by an early endorsement from Trump as well as a substantial fundraising advantage. But DeSantis has criticized Donalds in the past, and the southwest Florida representative has been pounded by rivals such as Fishback, who have used racially charged language to describe him. If Fishback — who has managed to energize some younger voters — places second, it could raise questions about party unity moving forward.
Asked by POLITICO how concerned he was about polling showing Fishback in second place, Donalds said at a recent campaign rally: “To quote Charles Barkley, ‘When you’re in second place, you’re just a first loser.’”
Donalds, pointing to DeSantis’ own primary fight in 2018 when he defeated then-Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam for the nomination, contended that Republicans in the state are “accustomed to having rough and tumble primaries. … It actually happens in our party quite often.”
“So, like the way I look at it, the primaries will end, and then, as we always do, we’re going to refocus,” he said. “But I think for the people who are supporting others, they just want to make sure that the free state of Florida that they come to know and love is going to continue, and I think that’s what every Republican voter has been looking for.”
Donalds has been running for governor for more than a year, jumping in soon after Trump endorsed him and pursuing an aggressive campaign schedule. When he first got in, far more Republicans were considered possible candidates, including Florida first lady Casey DeSantis, Florida Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, Sen. Ashley Moody, former Rep. Matt Gaetz and then-Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis. But only a small circle of big-name candidates wound up challenging him, with Fishback perhaps generating the most unexpected level of interest.
In a phone call with POLITICO on Monday, Fishback accused Donalds and other gubernatorial hopefuls, including former state House Speaker Paul Renner and Collins, of being ineffective because they are currently or were recently in office and hadn’t solved the state’s affordability crisis. “I’m the outsider in this race,” he said.
Asked whether he was willing to back Donalds after the primary, Fishback insisted he’d win, pointing to polling that missed the mark in the Wisconsin governor’s race and in the Michigan Senate race.
“What I’m going to do is I am going to unite the Republican Party as the nominee,” he said. “I have never, and I will never, vote for a Democrat, and this will not be the exception.”
Donalds’ two other rivals in the race — Collins and Renner — have tried to position themselves as the natural heir to the DeSantis legacy. But neither was able to win a coveted endorsement from the governor.
Collins insisted that DeSantis’ decision to tap him as lieutenant governor last year, and his initial praise of the former Green Beret as the “Chuck Norris of Florida politics,” illustrated his connection to the governor. Tensions, however, mounted between those working for DeSantis and Collins, with accusations playing out in nasty spats online.
DeSantis initially was dismissive of Renner’s run for governor, calling it “ill-advised,” even though while he was speaker Renner pushed through a long line of conservative policies that DeSantis touted during his unsuccessful run for president. But recently, DeSantis spoke more positively of Renner and said he would be a “good” governor, explaining his previous reticence was more about strategy.
State Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, who is also running for a second term, acknowledged that all the infighting between Republicans could prompt some voters to think twice about participating.
“It’s sad,” Simpson said after he attended a Donalds stop held Monday afternoon in Plant City. “I think we have a lot of turmoil in our politics today, and with all that vitriol it’s a shame we don’t have 50, 60, 70 percent turnout.”
Florida Republicans on Tuesday could also play a pivotal role in whether the GOP is able to keep control of the House in November. DeSantis’ push to alter the state’s congressional map has the potential to flip as many as four seats. But incumbent GOP Rep. Cory Mills, who is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee, could give Democrats a potential target if he defeats three Republican challengers in Florida’s 7th District.
It’s unclear who exactly will emerge in several open congressional seats. The primary to replace Donalds in southwest Florida has been derisively nicknamed the “carpetbagger primary” because several of those running have relocated from other states — and two of those on the ballot were even in Congress previously representing other states.
Trump could have placed an outsized role in multiple primaries this year, but opted to stick to endorsing incumbents. He did weigh in on two races, including endorsing Catalina Lauf for the seat now held by Donalds, and Sydney Gruters, the former New College Foundation executive director and wife of Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters, who is running in the seat being vacated by retiring Rep. Vern Buchanan.
Kimberly Leonard reported from Miami.
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