Tuesday’s primaries are a major test of the direction for a Democratic Party lacking in clear leadership.
From California’s gubernatorial contest to the Senate primary in Iowa to House primaries in New Jersey and the Los Angeles mayoral contest, Democrats of all stripes will see what type of candidates their voters are most inclined to support.
It’s a big moment for a party that continues — despite broad frustration — to reckon with across the board losses in 2024. And it comes at the beginning of a month of internecine Democratic tests from Maine to Nevada that will test Democrats’ direction. If May was for President Donald Trump’s primary revenge tour, June is all about the party in the wilderness.
Here are five things POLITICO is watching tonight:
Can Dems lockout the California governor’s race?
The governor’s race for America’s largest state has been full of twists and turns, most notably when sexual assault allegations emerged against then-frontrunner Rep. Eric Swalwell, tanking his bid and forcing him out from Congress.
In the weeks since, former Health Secretary Xavier Becerra has emerged at the top of the polls much to the dismay of some of his former colleagues in the Biden Administration and Congress.
Now, the question is whether Becerra will go head-to-head with Trump-backed Republican Steve Hilton, or if self-funding billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer, running on a progressive platform and polling in third place, can push his way into a Democrat-on-Democrat run-off.
Steyer has funneled a record-breaking $195 million into his campaign, closing with a bruising attack ad that focuses on scandals from Becerra’s current and former staffers. Becerra has demanded Steyer take the ad off the air.
If Democrats can lock the GOP out of the race, it’s sure to kick off months more of infighting and drama that the party is hoping to avoid. At the same time, a Democratic lockout could also hurt overall GOP turnout in a number of the House battleground seats that will be key for Democrats in November.
Can anti-establishment candidates win their primaries?
In Iowa’s Democratic Senate primary, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has become a focal point, for better or worse. State Sen. Zach Wahls has repeatedly bashed Schumer’s leadership as state Rep. Josh Turek rolls in cash from groups aligned with Schumer.
If Wahls were to prevail, it would show how Schumer’s shaky standing with voters in the party — a new POLITICO poll found 47 percent of likely Democratic midterms voters want someone else to lead the party in the upper chamber — could affect his leadership status moving forward. But a Turek win will give the establishment the candidate they want as they try to win their first Senate race in the state in two decades — and comes after their handpicked candidate, Gov. Janet Mills, fell apart in Maine.
In a number of other races across the country Tuesday, Democrats are mounting generationally-focused bids that highlight the party’s lack of a clear leader.
That dynamic has been a focal point in California’s 22nd District, where the David Hogg- and Working Families Party-backed Randy Villegas is taking on establishment-backed Dr. Jasmeet Bains. Rep. Doris Matsui (D-Calif.) is facing a primary challenger, Mai Vang, who is half her age and also has Hogg’s backing in the state’s 7th District. Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.) is facing a number of challengers in the 32nd District, including a former staffer, in a race similarly defined by generational change.
And in the race to replace former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, her own status as a party leader has been a focus. Progressive Saikat Chakrabarti — a former staffer for Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-Vt.) presidential campaign and former chief of staff for Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-N.Y.) — has self-funded millions into his campaign. Pelosi is backing San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, and state Sen. Scott Wiener is also vying for the Democratic nod.
A strong showing for the slate of leadership-averse candidates would reinforce a broader debate unfolding in the party, while losses would show that even as voters are upset with party leaders, they aren’t ready to move on quite yet.
Who advances in key battleground House races?
Just like California’s 22nd District, the Golden State’s must-win 48th District also has a messy primary to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Darrell Issa, a seat that will be crucial in determining a House majority this fall.
“This is not an easy race for a Democrat by any means,” Marni von Wilpert, a moderate-leaning candidate in the district, told POLITICO last month.
Von Wilpert is facing repeat-candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar, who Republicans are already working to cast as too liberal for the San Diego based district.
Meanwhile, four Democrats are running in the 7th to take on two-term Republican Tom Kean Jr. in New Jersey’s most competitive district, which has become an even-bigger focus for the party given Kean’s two-month absence from Congress and lack of public appearances due to an undisclosed health issue.
Republicans are hoping to see the furthest-left candidates advance ahead of November, where the party is facing strong headwinds in order to cling to their thin House majority. For the most part, Democrats are bullish they can win the districts regardless of who advances.
How do anti-Israel Democrats fare?
As Democrats broadly still grapple with Israel’s war with Hamas, a number of prominent anti-Israel candidates are on the ballot Tuesday.
The clearest example is in New Jersey’s 12th District, where 13 Democrats are vying to replace retiring progressive Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman.
The winner of the primary will almost certainly win the general election in the heavily-Democratic district. While there’s been no independent public polls of the race released, the frontrunner is widely considered to be Dr. Adam Hamawy, a plastic surgeon who Sen. Tammy Duckworth credits with saving her life when they both served in the Army in Iraq.
Hamawy also volunteered in Gaza and has been highly critical of Israel. But his past association as a young medical student with terrorist “Blind Sheikh” Omar Abdel-Rahman has drawn negative headlines that contrast to Hamawy’s long service in the Army and as a 9/11 first responder. Hamawy appeared as a witness during Abdel-Rahman’s trial.
Israel has also been a prominent topic in some of California’s primaries. Democratic Majority for Israel PAC spent $586,000 against Campa-Najjar in CA-48 and $1.6 million to prop up Bains in CA-22, according to AdImpact.
Opponents of Chan are also accusing her of benefiting from spending by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, tying a web of PAC money from AIPAC to a PAC backing Chan’s bid.
Will Democrats play spoiler in deep-red Senate races?
As the Democratic Party continues to navigate brutal approval ratings, especially in red states, some left-leaning independents are trying mounting upstart bids in states where the party is not viable.
That isn’t stopping Democrats from getting in the way, and setting up a glide-path to split-ticket destruction for the longshot independents in November.
In Montana, GOP-linked groups have spent more than $5 million in the Democratic Senate primary, hoping to prop up state Rep. Reilly Neill, who has promised not to step aside for independent Seth Bodnar, who has the backing (and shares top staffers) with former Democratic Sen. Jon Tester.
Republicans are wary that Democrat Alani Bankhead will drop out for Bodnar, even though so far she’s said she will run either way.
And in neighboring South Dakota, unopposed Democrat Julian Beaudion has already promised not to step aside for independent Brian Bengs as they both work to unseat GOP Sen. Mike Rounds.
Blake Jones and Matthew Friedman contributed to this report.
A version of this article first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score. Want to receive the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.
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