Financial research giant Morningstar has placed a fair value estimate of $63 per share on SpaceX, representing a 53 percent discount to the company’s upcoming initial public offering price of $135 per share. Other analysts believe Elon Musk’s rocket company will increase in value from its IPO price over the next year.
The valuation from Morningstar equity analyst Nicolas Owens stems from mathematical modeling rather than skepticism about the company itself. Given the extraordinarily wide range of possible outcomes for SpaceX’s financial future, Morningstar constructed forecasts for three distinct scenarios, then probability-weighted them to arrive at its final figure. Breitbart News previously reported that Morningstar values SpaceX at roughly half of what Elon Musk’s IPO puts the value at.
Even at $63 per share, Morningstar says it is giving SpaceX considerable benefit of the doubt in two of the three scenarios, which assume the company can achieve a rapidly reusable Starship rocket capable of multiple launches per week and successfully commercialize data centers in orbit. Neither engineering challenge has been solved, and Morningstar does not expect solutions until at least 2028.
In Morningstar’s most optimistic “moonshot” scenario, SpaceX would command a valuation of $1.97 trillion, or $154 per share — 14 percent above the IPO offering price and a level the shares might briefly reach following their public debut, driven by investor enthusiasm surrounding SpaceX, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and the IPO itself. However, Morningstar assigns this scenario only a seven percent probability, which helps explain why the final fair value estimate falls so far below the $154 moonshot valuation.
Other Wall Street research firms also reported their recommendations ahead of the Nasdaq debut. Oppenheimer initiated coverage with an outperform rating and a 12- to 18-month price target of $190, suggesting a potential gain of 40 percent from the IPO price. Analyst Timothy Horan highlighted the company’s broad and diversified business mix, writing in a Thursday research note that SpaceX has the potential to apply its expertise in terrestrial computing as a bridge and possible back-up plan that could help it achieve scale and cost advantages. He described the company as the only vertically integrated artificial intelligence company with the necessary capital, data, large language models, hardware, manufacturing capabilities, and engineering talent, and wrote that its space infrastructure appears structurally advantaged. Horan expects the stock to experience volatility, though he believes it should rise in the early stages of trading.
New Street Research initiated coverage with a 12-month price target of $165, implying a 22 percent increase from the IPO price, without assigning a rating. Analyst Pierre Ferragu projected SpaceX revenue will climb to $195 billion by 2030, up from $18.7 billion in 2025, and expects the company to begin generating net profit in 2027. SpaceX reported a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025. Ferragu estimated SpaceX could be valued at $2.3 trillion in 2027, noting this could increase if the total addressable market for its space business proves larger than expected — New Street’s current forecasts use a low-end assumption. Ferragu wrote, “If though the whole opportunity grows to our high-end estimate and SpaceX wins 50 percent share, it would imply a fair value of $330/ share.”
Read the full Morningstar analysis here.
Lucas Nolan is a reporter for Breitbart News covering issues of AI, free speech, and online censorship.
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