Financial research giant Morningstar has placed a fair value estimate of $63 per share on SpaceX, representing a 53 percent discount to the company’s upcoming initial public offering price of $135 per share. Other analysts believe Elon Musk’s rocket company will increase in value from its IPO price over the next year.

The valuation from Morningstar equity analyst Nicolas Owens stems from mathematical modeling rather than skepticism about the company itself. Given the extraordinarily wide range of possible outcomes for SpaceX’s financial future, Morningstar constructed forecasts for three distinct scenarios, then probability-weighted them to…

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