White House Legislative Affairs Director James Braid revealed why Republicans can hold Congress in the midterm elections, defying historical trends in which the party holding the White House suffers electoral losses.
Braid, in a discussion Wednesday with Sen. Jim Banks (R-IN), Breitbart News’s Washington Bureau Chief Matt Boyle, and Finance and Economics Editor John Carney, explained that Republicans can hold or even expand their slim House majority due to “a fairly favorable map with an unprecedented series of legislative achievements” along with President Donald Trump’s leadership.
The biggest opportunity for Republicans is in the 13 Democrat-held House districts won by Trump in 2024.
“One point I’d make to that is the map is very favorable,” Braid explained to the panel. “So, you know, there are only three Republicans in the House in Kamala-won districts. There are 13 Democrats in Trump-won districts. You know, I don’t want to get too far into this. But obviously we’re seeing reporting that a number of different states have decided to pursue changes. And so, yeah, I mean, I think there’s a great opportunity to defy history.”
Those 13 Democrats in Trump districts are Reps. Adam Gray (CA), Josh Harder (CA), Jared Golden (ME), Kristen McDonald Rivet (MI), Don Davis (NC), Nellie Pou (NJ), Gabe Vasquez (NM), Susie Lee (NV), Tom Suozzi (NY), Marcy Kaptur (OH), Henry Cuellar (TX), Vicente Gonzalez (TX), and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA).
The only Republicans in the district won by Kamala Harris are Reps. Don Bacon (NE), who is retiring, Mike Lawler (NY), and Brian Fitzpatrick (PA).
Trump’s successful unification of the Republican Party adds to those chances, Braid said.
“I think that one of the things that the Republicans haven’t done [in the past], and the President has preached very, very directly, is unify,” he added. “Unity is sort of a constant message, of unity without the type of infighting that we saw in the first term between the leadership and the president. I think we have an even better chance. So, yeah, I do think that the party is well set up to defy history, both because of its achievements, because of the map and because of the leadership it has in President Trump.”
The One, Big Beautiful Bill Act is the legislative vehicle for Republicans to run upon. Voters will see the benefits long before they go to the polls in November 2026.
“The bill is retroactive [to] January 1, 2025, so not only was it passed by July 4, which was six months earlier than the tax cuts in 2017, it goes retroactive,” Braid explained. “So everyone who has tips, overtime, Social Security, obviously the rates, obviously the business provisions, they will feel it immediately when they’re filing their taxes in April, before the midterms. So, you’re looking at, and I mean, even in some of these blue states, where, candidly, the majority runs through, you’re going to see a huge reduction in their [state and local tax] SALT expenses.”
“You look at that and say, people are going to receive thousands and thousands of dollars in their pocketbooks in April before they’re going to the polls,” Braid added. “That’s going to have a transformative impact on, I think, how the midterms go, because the Republican Party will have delivered material increases in prosperity for Americans, and that typically is rewarded at the polls.”
The panel followed a discussion between Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent and Boyle.
Bradley Jaye is Deputy Political Editor for Breitbart News. Follow him on X/Twitter and Instagram @BradleyAJaye.
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