EU facing winter gas shock – FT

The European Union risks entering the coming heating season with its lowest gas reserves in 15 years, potentially driving up energy costs for households and businesses, the Financial Times reported on Monday, citing projections by consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

The bloc has faced soaring energy prices since scaling back Russian oil and gas imports following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict four years ago. The shift away from relatively cheap Russian pipeline gas has left Europe increasingly reliant on more expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG), particularly from the US.

EU gas storage sites are expected to be just 76% full by the end of the April-to-October restocking season, the lowest pre-winter level since 2011, according to Wood Mackenzie.

The outlook is further clouded by the EU’s planned ban on Russian LNG from January 1, which would eliminate supplies that currently account for around 14% of the bloc’s imports of the super-chilled fuel. Additional strain has come from disruptions to LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz during the recent US-Iran conflict, as well as lower production in Qatar and the UAE, the FT said.

Wood Mackenzie warned that prices are likely to climb as winter approaches, especially if Europe experiences a cold spell in early 2027. Natasha Fielding, an analyst at Argus Media, told the FT that the longer global LNG supplies remain tight, the lower Europe’s storage levels will be at the start of winter and the greater the risk of sharp price spikes.

EU storage facilities were only 28% full at the start of the refilling season after an unusually cold winter, well below the seasonal average, the FT noted. They have since reached an average fill level of 48%, according to industry trackers.

Earlier this year, Politico reported that roughly a quarter of the EU’s gas imports came from the US. The outlet cited diplomats warning that Washington could use Europe’s growing dependence on American fuel to advance its foreign policy goals. Last week, the US warned it could redirect LNG exports elsewhere unless Brussels softens planned methane emissions rules.

In March, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow could withdraw from the European gas market and redirect supplies to “emerging markets” rather than wait for the EU’s restrictions to take effect. He argued that the bloc’s energy crisis was the result of “misguided policies” pursued over “many years.”