Texans cast ballots Tuesday in primary runoff elections that could steer the direction of politics in Texas – and Washington – for a generation.
The marquee race is incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) versus Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R-TX) –sporting a fresh endorsement from President Donald Trump – for the chance to take on radical Democrat nominee James Talarico in November.
Cornyn outspent Paxton in the March 3 primary with such unprecedented cash that the battle holds the ignominious record for the most expensive primary in the history of the nation. Cornyn and his allies spent over $100 million on his behalf, with Paxton and his allies spending somewhere between $4 and 6 million.
Yet Cornyn, a sitting U.S. Senator, fell eight points shy of hitting 50 percent, an embarrassment for a four-term Senator who once served as the second-ranking Senate Republican behind only his mentor, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), and who finished second in December 2024 in his bid to replace McConnell.
He only received about a point and a half more of the primary votes than Paxton, with Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) receiving about 13 percent.
Trump did not endorse in the primary. Yet within about a day of votes being counted, the president posted on Truth Social that he would make an endorsement in the runoff and ask the candidate not receiving his endorsement to drop out, avoiding an expensive primary.
The conventional wisdom in Washington was Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) had won out, convincing Trump that Cornyn’s small plurality in the primary was reason to back the establishment-backed Cornyn.
Political lackeys for Thune and Cornyn openly gloated.
But just a day later, Paxton pulled a rabbit out of his hat. In a brilliant political masterstroke that could change the trajectory of the Republican Party, the AG pledged to consider dropping out of the race if Cornyn could shepherd the SAVE America Act through the Senate to passage.
That legislation, a favorite of Trump and overwhelmingly favored by not only Republicans but Independents and Democrat voters, had stalled in the Republican-led Senate, with establishment Senators like Cornyn giving lip service to the bill yet doing little to force the bill through.
The MAGA grassroots in Texas and beyond exploded. Trump’s promised endorsement did not come.
Until 75 days later.
With polling showing Paxton building a growing lead over the hapless Cornyn, Trump endorsed Paxton on May 19. The endorsement sent shockwaves throughout Washington. The president had revealed just hours earlier, to an inquiry from Breitbart News Washington Correspondent Nick Gilbertson, he would be endorsing in the race.
The establishment assumed, or hoped, their Texas lifeline had arrived.
It was not to be.
Republican Senators fumed to the Capitol press corps as they assembled at a weekly conference lunch. Shortly after, they ended progress on Trump’s border funding package, choosing to go on early vacation rather than meet Trump’s June 1 deadline.
Just hours later, responding to a question from Breitbart’s Gilbertson on if Trump’s endorsement was a message not only to Republican Senators but MAGA-aligned potential candidates considering primary challenges in 2028, Vice President JD Vance made clear that Trump’s endorsement was a message to Republicans who talked a big game but weren’t with the president when he most needs them.
“I’ve known John Cornyn for a long time, but unfortunately, you know, when it really counted, Ken Paxton was there for the country, was there for the president, and that’s why he ultimately earned the president’s endorsement,” Vance said, adding:
I think one of the things we’ve seen in the Republican Party, while I can’t say that all of our representatives are perfect or all of our senators are perfect, we have seen a much better crop of talent come into Washington since Donald Trump has been the leader of the party, and the leader of the movement. I do think we’re going to continue to see that happen, but I think the message that people should take from this is, fundamentally, you have got to serve the people who sent you. If you don’t do that, you’re going to find yourself out of step with voters, or out of step with the President of the United States, and that’s not a good place to be politically.
While petulant Republican Senators might block Trump’s agenda the rest of the year, a Paxton victory could firmly set the party on a new path in the Senate, which has been slower to change personnel and ideology in the age of Trump than the House.
Some Senators could fall in line rather than risking a Trump-backed challenger. Others might choose to forego reelection bids.
Regardless, Trump’s Paxton endorsement, with all the inevitable fallout, represents a flexing of his presidential muscle not yet seen in Trump’s second term.
Tuesday, Trump’s flex could pay off. But this is Texas, and anything is possible.
Besides the Senate races, several House primary runoffs taking place in Texas have garnered attention, with new district lines – also forced through by the President – limiting Democrat opportunities for competitiveness.
Democrat Reps. Al Green and Christian Menefee face off after finishing within a couple points in the primary. Former Rep. Colin Allred faces his replacement, Rep. Julie Johnson, after Allred stepped away from his Senate bid.
Polls close at 8:00 p.m. ET in most of the state, with polls in El Paso in the westernmost tip of the state (in Mountain Time) closing at 9 p.m. ET.
This story will be updated throughout the evening.
UPDATE 12:00 a.m. ET:
As midnight arrives on the east coast, with 92 percent of the vote in, Paxton maintains 64 percent of the vote to Cornyn’s 36 percent for a staggering 28-point victory.
UPDATE 11:57 p.m. ET:
A few other race calls from the AP:
Former Rep. Colin Allred defeats Rep. Julie Johnson in the 33rd Congressional District Democrat primary. Allred endorsed Johnson to replace him in 2024 when he ran and lost for Senate. He abandoned his second Senate run this cycle after Rep. Jasmine Crockett and Talarico gained steam, deciding to run for his old seat, which had been redrawn.
Johnny Garcia defeats sex therapist Maureen Galindo, who was under fire for antisemitic comments and allegations of being propped up by Republicans, in the 35th Congressional District Democrat primary.
Trump-backed Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz, brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz, defeated John Lujan.
Rep. Christian Menefee walloped Rep. Al Green in the Democrat primary for the new 18th Congressional District.
UPDATE 10:35 p.m. ET:
Add RNC Chairman Joe Gruters to the list of Paxton endorsements, and yes, he mentioned the nominee by name, although the bulk of the release beyond the chairman’s statement attacked Talarico’s record.
“Congratulations to MAGA warrior Ken Paxton, who will be a relentless fighter for President Trump,” Gruters said in statement. “Texas is Trump country and won’t break a 32-year streak for a woke freak like James Talarico, who thinks there are six genders. Talarico will regret running for Senate by the time Republicans are done with him.”
UPDATE 10:31 p.m. ET:
Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY) endorses Paxton. Barrasso is the second-ranking Republican Senator behind only Thune, who has still not made a statement after spending significant political capital trying to convince Trump to endorse Cornyn.
UPDATE 10:29 p.m. ET:
Cornyn shares a bible verse from 2 Timothy, saying “I have fought the fight, I have finished the race, I have kept the faith.” He has not yet mentioned Paxton by name since conceding the race.
UPDATE 10:27 p.m. ET:
Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-MO) endorses Paxton, another Senate domino to fall.
UPDATE 10:25 p.m. ET:
Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) conceded the GOP runoff for Texas Attorney General to State Sen. Mayes Middleton.
UPDATE 10:22 p.m. ET:
Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), a former NRSC chair but not to be confused with the current chair Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), endorses Paxton.
UPDATE 10:20 p.m. ET:
Paxton, who made a victory speech earlier, has issued a statement following his victory, thanking Trump for his endorsement and Cornyn for his service. It reads in part:
This historic victory comes after President Donald J. Trump gave Ken Paxton his Complete and Total Endorsement, solidifying Paxton as the right choice to represent Texas in the United States Senate. Tonight, Texas voters delivered a clear message: change was on the ballot and change won.
“We just proved that this Senate seat doesn’t belong to Washington. It belongs to the hardworking men and women of Texas,” said Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Paxton also thanked President Trump for standing with him and the people of Texas in this critical Senate race.
“When everyone in Washington told him to abandon me and abandon the people of Texas, he didn’t listen,” said Paxton. “Instead, President Trump gave me his Complete and Total Endorsement. President Trump is the leader of our party, and his endorsement is the most powerful force in politics. I am honored to have his support, and I look forward to working with him in the Senate to deliver for Texas.”
Paxton is now laser-focused on uniting the Republican Party, working tirelessly to earn the support of every single Texas voter, and defeating James Talarico.
“I want to thank John Cornyn for his service to this state. John has dedicated much of his life to serving Texans. He’s worked diligently for years to help Texas and for that spirit of service to the Lone Star State and our nation, I’m very grateful,” said Ken Paxton. “The Democrats know that if Republicans lose Texas, we lose the country. Now, it’s time to come together, grow this movement, and fight for our future to ensure Texas’ and America’s best days are still ahead of us.”
UPDATE 10:15 p.m. ET:
Sen. Ted Cruz, who would serve Texas in the Senate with Paxton, joins Sens. Moreno and Banks in endorsing the nominee.
“Ken is a fearless conservative who spent years taking on Texas’s toughest battles as Attorney General and has proven that he will always fight for and defend the Lone Star State,” Cruz posted. “He will continue that fight in the U.S. Senate, and I look forward to fighting alongside him.”
“I also want to congratulate and thank my friend Senator John Cornyn for his many years of dedicated service to Texas and our country,” Cruz continued. “It has been an honor to serve alongside him for over a decade. He spent decades fighting for the Lone Star State, and his service in the Senate has left a significant mark on Texas and the nation. Heidi and I are grateful for his friendship, and we wish John and his family the very best.”
Cruz finished with a call to unite, noteworthy since Cornyn did not mention Paxton by name while saying he would support the Republican ticket.
“Now, it’s time to unite to make sure that Texas stays Texas,” he said. “James Talarico is radical, dangerous, and does not represent the values, ideas, or principles of the Lone Star State. Defeating him is critical.”
UPDATE 10:08 p.m. ET:
The die is cast, but Paxton’s lead has grown. With 71 percent in, he now has 64 percent of the vote. By every definition, this is an electoral bloodbath.
UPDATE 9:52 p.m. ET:
Cornyn concedes defeat, saying he will support the Republican ticket but not naming Paxton.
“I’ve spent most of my time in the Senate building the Republican Party in Texas… and I’ve always supported the Republican ticket, and I intend to do so again this general election,” Cornyn said. “I’ve said throughout this race that I trust the voters of Texas, and they’ve made their decision and I must respect it.”
UPDATE 9:43 p.m. ET:
Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH), expected to chair the NRSC next cycle, endorses Paxton. Sen. Jim Banks (R-IN), another MAGA ally, makes the endorsement as well.
How many other Senators will follow suit? Given that the NRSC made a preemptive statement before polls even closed attributed to a spokesperson that did not name Paxton, it may be unlikely Tim Scott and Thune make a further statement tonight.
But make no mistake, Paxton’s victory is all Republican Senators are thinking about right now, and could prove to be the pivot point in a new direction for the Senate Republican Conference.
UPDATE 9:30 p.m. ET:
While not surprising, Talarico is openly courting Cornyn voters, praising Cornyn (as have many Democrats throughout the campaign) and telling his voters “you have a place in our campaign.”
UPDATE 9:25 p.m. ET:
Cornyn, gunning for his fifth term, had every resource he needed to win – except the support of Texas voters.
Paxton leads Cornyn by an astounding 25 points, a margin attributed not only to Trump’s late endorsement of Paxton but Cornyn’s style and priorities.
Throughout the race, Cornyn and his team – who in a meritorious world would have trouble finding jobs but likely will be taken in by a Republican establishment campaign world blind to its need for reform – parroted Cornyn’s record voting to support Trump.
But voters outside the Beltway are smarter than the Washington consultant class thinks. Few votes of consequence are taken on the Senate floor, and even fewer in which Senators would be forced to reveal their preference for outcomes opposed by their voters.
While Cornyn may have (begrudgingly) voted with Trump, he rarely stuck his neck out for the president, never championed any MAGA priorities, often undermined the president in interviews and behind the scenes, and developed a record of advancing open borders, amnesty, and gun control.
As Vance told Breitbart News, Cornyn was never with the president when it counted. Voters knew.
Before Tuesday, a Republican incumbent Senator had not lost a primary since earlier in May, when Trump’s nemesis Sen. Bill Cassidy only got a quarter of the vote in Louisiana, missing the runoff entirely. But before that, it has been since 2012.
But Cassidy did not have the institutional power or resources at his disposal that Cornyn possessed, and he had not been a Washington mainstay like the 24-year incumbent Cornyn.
Cornyn’s defeat is truly historic and represents not only Trump’s power to defeat those he sees as his enemies but also to remake the party in his image, one favored by most Republican voters but still fought by the establishment and many Washington insiders who pined for Cornyn’s continued presence in Washington.
Paxton must win in November. If he does, he is unlikely to be welcomed into the inner circle.
But if Trump continues steering the party down its current path, those in the current Senate inner circle may soon find themselves on the outside.
UPDATE 9:04 p.m. ET:
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican Senate primary runoff.
The Associated Press called the race within a minute of polls closing.
UPDATE 9:00 p.m. ET:
Polls across Texas are now closed, with the 7 o’clock hour arriving in El Paso, Texas.
Fifty-six percent of votes are in in the Republican Senate runoff. Paxton is ahead with 62.5 percent.
Expect prognosticators to begin calling this race any moment now.
UPDATE 8:55 p.m. ET:
The NRSC statement does not name Paxton – polls are still open, after all – and is attributed to a regional press secretary, not Thune or NRSC Chair Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC).
Thune and Scott presumably must speak about their party’s nominee at some point. But they’ll also be pressured to answer why they funneled tens of millions of dollars into a losing candidate, money that bloodied their eventual nominee and, by conventional understanding of politics, will make the Republicans’ chance of keeping the seat more difficult, or at least more expensive.
UPDATE 8:49 p.m. ET:
Cornyn has endlessly made the claim, echoed by Thune and the NRSC, is that Paxton is unelectable. The trio and the various groups they command used that claim to justify spending well into nine figures for Cornyn, valuable resources that Paxton and his allies argue could have been better spent in battleground states.
But as most of the polls have closed and Paxton’s runoff victory is inevitable, the NRSC is showing they no longer believe that – or perhaps never did.
“A state President Trump won by nearly 14 points isn’t going to elect James Talarico — a radical leftist who thinks God is nonbinary and that Texas should be a welcome mat for illegals,” an NRSC communications staffer tweeted at 8:39pm ET. “He is the most dangerous flank of the far left. Texas isn’t swapping brisket for open borders.”
UPDATE 8:40 p.m. ET:
Fifty-two percent of the expected vote is in and Paxton has actually gained strength. He sits at 63 percent to Cornyn’s 37 percent. Cornyn’s practical chances of victory are now only hypothetical. Monumental.
UPDATE 8:36 p.m. ET:
How confident are some Washington power players that Paxton will win?
Club for Growth is jumping on the Paxton bandwagon, and they have an ad ready to go up tomorrow attacking Talarico. This was reported tonight before all the polls even closed.
UPDATE 8:31 p.m. ET:
In the Democrat runoff for the 18th Congressional District, Menefee, who won a special election in January to replace the deceased Rep. Sylvester Turner in a district whose lines shifted significantly, is trending towards victory over Al Green, who is best known for his signature long hair and cane and dogged focus on calling for Trump’s impeachment, even at inopportune times.
Green was censured by the House in 2025 in a bipartisan vote after he was expelled from Trump’s address to Congress.
UPDATE 8:25 p.m. ET:
With only 33.3 percent of the expected vote in, Paxton is up 62.2 percent to Cornyn’s 37.8 percent. Those margins are unlikely to hold, but anything approaching those numbers would represent a historic victory over a Senate incumbent for Paxton.
UPDATE 8:20 p.m. ET:
There are signs this could be an early night in the Senate runoff, with early results showing Paxton preparing for a romp.
“In March, Paxton got 9,063 EV in Brazoria county. Cornyn got 8,684. Tonight, Paxton has 9,802. Cornyn has only 4,076,” Henry Olsen posted.
“That type of shift on the margin is occurring EVERYWHERE.”
UPDATE 8:12 p.m. ET
Another race to watch tonight is the Democratic primary in the 35th Congressional District, where sex therapist Maureen Galindo finished first in March just ahead of Bexar County Sheriff’s Deputy Johnny Garcia.
Galindo is under fire for an Instagram post in which she said she wished to turn ICE detention centers “into a prison for American Zionists” and “a castration processing center for pedophiles which will probably be most of the Zionists.”
Democrats have distanced themselves from Galindo, who has raised and spent little money on her own but has been backed by Lead Left PAC, which was formed in May and has not yet revealed its donors. Democrats have accused the group of being financed by Republicans.
The new district lines encompass a region that would have gone for Trump by about 10 points.
Bradley Jaye is Political Editor for Breitbart News. Follow him on X/Twitter and Instagram @BradleyAJaye.
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