Cream Of The Derby Crop In A Mighty Five-Way Battle

In the middle of last week, the Weather Gods determined that a Zeus-on-Olympus temper tantrum was warranted for the upland South and Midwest, which torrents and flooding moved the Blue Grass to this afternoon in Lexington. Despite that, the anxiously awaited Kentucky Derby prep — arguably the classiest Derby prep this season — still beckons with its ultra-tight, talent-packed field. It’s not just that Todd Pletcher’s River Thames is the man to beat. It is that his 5-2 purchase on the top rung of the favorites’ ladder is microscopically skinny, because there are so many capable athletes up against him in Lexington this afternoon who could tip him off it.

But before we get into what Owen Almighty, Burnham Square, Chancer McPatrick, East Avenue and their jockeys plan to do about that, here, a refresher on the field, post positions and morning line.

Post Position, Horse, jockey, trainer, morning line odds

1. River Thames, Irad Ortiz Jr., Todd Pletcher, 5-2

2. Render Judgment, Sheldon Russell, Kenny McPeek, 20-1

3. Burnham Square, Brian Hernandez Jr., Ian Wilkes, 4-1

4. Owen Almighty, Jose Ortiz, Brian Lynch, 3-1

5. East Avenue, Luan Machado, Brendan Walsh, 3-1

6. Chancer McPatrick, Flavien Prat, Chad Brown, 7-2

7. Admiral Dennis, Luis Saez, Brad Cox, 20-1

(Source: Keeneland, 4/8/2025)

In one way, the 2025 Blue Grass Stakes short 7-horse field is a godsend in that this race mops up — but only sort-of — the questions raised by some of the other big hundred-point preps. A fresh Blue Grass winner or a placer merrily laying hundred- and fifty-point totals to their Kentucky Derby scores thus far will cause quite some shuffling on the Derby leaderboard. But in a more pointed, diabolical way for this afternoon’s players, the sheer density of talent bunched just millimeters behind Pletcher’s River Thames approximates that of a black hole that very well can suck River Thames right down and out into oblivion. Four other superior challengers, all within a mere point-and-a-half of each other in the estimation of Keeneland’s excellent Odds Gods. Talk about top-heavy — the 2025 Blue Grass is delightfully, luxuriously top-heavy.

One other interesting reversal has been instigated by this superb Blue Grass draw: The sheer bristling array of talent has honed and refined the questions we must ask about each of them to the point that it seems we’re not talking about adolescent three-year-olds any more, increasing exponentially the risk of “overthinking” these young athletes and their likes and dislikes. Can it be that Owen Almighty really doesn’t seem like the kind of runner who could manage a mile-and-an-eighth? Was River Thames really run back too quickly for the Fountain of Youth? Could that be why Sovereignty blew past him? These are the sorts performance-related minutia that we usually dive into with four- and five-year-olds who’ve had their champion cards well-stamped. It makes the handicapping a lot more fraught, and thus more fun.

It’s instructive to look at the percentage of favorites in the Blue Grass rather than the size of the field. Five out of seven athletes, or 71% of the field, are favored in the morning line.

Which means: More than one somebody is getting left out in this fine Tuesday afternoon’s Big Leave-Out. Some, or several, of the five top-favored athletes will per force be left out of the exotic pools. Per force, at least two of the five won’t finish in the real money. If all five nominal favorites manage to hit the finish before before either of the two 20-1 outliers — Admiral Dennis and the ominously named Render Judgement — then they’ll pick up Derby points. If not, heave-ho boys!

However many top-five faves cannot muster themselves up and out of sixth or seventh at the wire this afternoon will get shunted out of the Derby points game altogether. Not to mention getting shunted well out of the race money. Nice, sharp little battle-royal for a Tuesday horse race, no?

For what it’s worth, two esteemed handicappers at Keeneland, Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman, are thinking that River Thames should pull it off, with, fascinatingly, Chancer McPatrick blasting to the fore as River Thames’ main rival, citing McPatrick’s second-place run in the Tampa Bay Derby. Owen Almighty, they opine, “cannot be overlooked.” Grain of salt moment, gentlemen? In less diplomatic parlance, perhaps that can be translated more bluntly as: Anything can happen.