Partial posters for “Sinners” and “A Minecraft Movie.”
Warner Bros. Pictures (both films)Jack Black and Jason Momoa’s A Minecraft Movie faces off against Michael B. Jordan’s new movie Sinners. However, does Jordan’s vampire thriller have enough power to drive a stake through the box office juggernaut?
A Minecraft Movie, of course, has been defying projections at the domestic box office since its April 4 opening, earning $163 million in its opening weekend and $78.5 million in its second-weekend frame.
To date, A Minecraft Movie has made $291.3 million domestically and $273.3 million internationally for a running worldwide box office tally of $564.6 million. The good news? The film had a $150 million production budget before prints and advertising — a more than reasonable number in an age where $200 million blockbuster hopefuls are the norm.
After staving off five new films in wide release last weekend, A Minecraft Movie comes into its third weekend facing a formidable competitor in Sinners, writer-director Ryan Coogler’s supernatural horror thriller starring his Creed and Black Panther collaborator Jordan as a pair of twins named Smoke and Stack.
Whether Sinners’ Smoke and Stack can ignite a fiery debut in its debut weekend is yet to be seen, but Deadline is projecting a $40 million domestic opening for the R-rated horror film.
Meanwhile, Deadline is projecting a $47 million take for the third-weekend frame of A Minecraft Movie, which would signal a 40% drop from the film’s second weekend in theaters.
Box Office Pro is casting a wider net for each film. The box office prognosticator is projecting a $35 million to $45 million take for A Minecraft Movie and a $30 million to $40 million opening weekend for Sinners.
Meanwhile, The Hollywood Reporter is a projecting a $40 million to $45 million tally for both A Minecraft Movie and Sinners. THR also noted that Warner Bros.’ forecast for Sinners is $35 million to $40 million.
Variety has the most optimistic lookout for Sinners, projecting it will make anywhere from $45 million to $50 million, while forecasting a $40 million to $50 million haul for A Minecraft Movie.
One major component that’s factoring into A Minecraft Movie’s potential success in its third frame is that it’s a PG family-friendly movie and on Easter weekend, families may be looking for a film they can see together.
On top of that, the Regal Cinemas chain is hosting special “Chicken Jockey” screenings on Easter Sunday, capitalizing on the TikTok moviegoing craze where crowds erupt into cheers, throw popcorn and wreak havoc (in one case an audience hoisted a live chicken in the air) during the scene.
The “Chicken Jockey” screenings at the major theater chain will likely produce a boom in business thanks to Regal’s strategic move to schedule the event on its 4XD screens.
The premium large format screens not only enhance the moviegoing experience for A Minecraft Movie audiences, it will cost them — at least in one California Regal venue — $7 more a ticket.
Michael B Jordan plays twins in “Sinners.”
Warner Bros. PicturesWhether ‘A Minecraft Movie’ Or ‘Sinners’ Takes No. 1 At The Weekend Box Office, It’s A Win For Warner Bros.
If Sinners defies projections and takes the No. 1 spot away from A Minecraft Movie at the domestic box office, it will be a major victory for the film, especially since it’s an R film that has restricted its ticket-buying potential.
Whether A Minecraft Movie or Sinners takes No. 1 at the box office it will still be a big win for Warner Bros. since the studio produced both films.
Better yet for the studio, Sinners comes into the weekend with a lean $90 million budget before P&A, Deadline reported, so it’s not insurmountable for the film to earn its money back (unlike, say, for example, Snow White). The trade publication is also projecting a $60 million worldwide haul for Sinners by adding in estimated worldwide receipts.
Best of all, Sinners has strong momentum with near unanimous praise of the film with a 99% “fresh” rating from Rotten Tomatoes critics as of this publication. Of course, great reviews don’t necessarily guarantee a film will be a box office hit, but it certainly doesn’t hurt its chances, either.
On the flip side, bad or middling reviews — like A Minecraft Movie received — have shown that sour notices don’t doom a movie’s financial prospects, and critics will be reminded of that again this weekend when the film mines more box office gold.
A Minecraft Movie is playing in theaters and Sinners plays in Thursday previews before opening in wide release on Friday.
Note: This article has been updated to include The Hollywood Reporter and Variety’s projections for “A Minecraft Movie” and “Sinners,” as well as Warner Bros.’ forecast for the latter.
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