A key gauge of U.S. business investment rose at the fastest pace in several months in July, underscoring steady demand for equipment even as headline durable-goods bookings were knocked lower by a drop in aircraft orders.
Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft—a closely watched proxy for business investment—climbed 1.1 percent last month, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. This was stronger than even the most optimistic forecasts and much better than the 0.3 percent consensus estimate. Core capital-goods shipments, which feed directly into GDP, rose 0.7 percent after edging up 0.1 percent in June.
By contrast, total durable-goods orders fell 2.8 percent to $302.8 billion, less than the 4 percent decline expected. The drop was driven by a 32.7 percent plunge in nondefense aircraft bookings, which tend to be highly volatile month to month and are not usually considered a reliable signal of broader economic momentum. Transportation equipment overall sank 9.7 percent, while motor vehicles and parts eked out a 0.3 percent gain. Excluding transportation, durable-goods orders advanced 1.1 percent, beating forecasts for a 0.1 percent increase and also topping the most optimistic estimates.
Orders strengthened across most major categories: machinery rose 1.8 percent, primary metals 1.5 percent, computers and electronics 0.6 percent, and electrical equipment 2.0 percent. Defense capital-goods orders—a category not seen as linked to the health of the broader economy—fell 9.7 percent.
Shipments of durable goods increased 1.4 percent to $307.5 billion, the eighth straight monthly rise. Unfilled orders were little changed at $1.469 trillion, after 12 increases in the past 13 months, and inventories grew 0.3 percent to $590.8 billion.
Year to date, durable-goods orders are up 7.3 percent from the same period in 2024, led by a 19 percent rise in transportation equipment. Core capital goods orders are up 2.3 percent year to date. Figures are seasonally adjusted and not price-adjusted.
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