President Donald Trump will be conducting high-stakes diplomacy during his trip to Asia next week.
Trump will attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Malaysia on Sunday, followed by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ Meeting in South Korea, and possibly a bilateral meeting with Chinese dictator Xi Jinping on Thursday.
The ASEAN summit will mark Trump’s first meeting with the new prime minister of Japan, Takaichi Sanae. Trump is then scheduled to visit Japan from Monday through Wednesday, where he will meet with Takaichi and Emperor Naruhito.
Takaichi is reportedly eager to discuss closer military cooperation between Japan and the United States, increased defense spending by Japan, and trade issues.
Reuters reported on Wednesday that Takaichi is prepared to offer Trump an attractive package of increased Japanese imports of automobiles, soybeans, and energy products. Her predecessor, Ishiba Shigeru, made a deal with Trump to lower tariffs on Japan to 15 percent in exchange for up to $550 billion in investments in the United States.
According to Reuters’ sources, the “sweeteners” in Takaichi’s offer include a purchase of Ford F-150 pickup trucks and an agreement to buy more American soybeans – ideas proposed by Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, respectively.
Lutnick is looking for alternative buyers for soybeans after China, formerly America’s top customer, canceled almost all of its purchases this year. Takaichi reportedly plans to switch some of Japan’s soybean imports to America from Brazil, which currently supplies about 70 percent of Japan’s needs.
As for the Ford pickup trucks, critics have said they are too large to fit comfortably on Japan’s narrow roads, but Reuters reported the Japanese might use them as snow plows.
Trump may press Takaichi for a firm commitment on dramatically higher defense spending, a commitment she is apparently reluctant to make.
Takaichi’s political coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin), strongly favors higher defense spending and Takaichi herself seems amenable, but Trump wants much more.
Takaichi said on Friday that her government will reach two percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) two years ahead of schedule, and prepare a new national security strategy by the end of 2026 to go even higher, but Trump wants Japan to spend at least five percent, matching the recommended defense spending level for NATO members.
Japanese Defense Minister Koizumi Shinjiro made a surprise announcement at a news conference on Friday that his American counterpart, Pete Hegseth, may visit Japan along with Trump.
“Personally, I would like to have an opportunity to meet with Secretary Hegseth as soon as possible to further develop the Japan-U.S. alliance, and I would like to build a strong personal relationship of trust with him,” Koiziumi said.
The ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia will bring Trump face-to-face with some leaders who have chafed under his tariff policies — including President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who probably will not be thrilled to hear about Japan’s plan to reduce Brazilian soybean imports to please Trump, but may bite his tongue because he wants relief from tariffs on Brazil.
The summiteers will also show some goodwill toward Trump, especially in recognizing the ceasefire he negotiated between Thailand and Cambodia in July. The Cambodian government nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize in recognition of his peacemaking efforts.
There may be some hope that Trump could turn those peacemaking skills to Myanmar, where a military junta has been fighting insurgents for years despite international pleas for de-escalation. China has thrown its weight behind the junta and its dubious proposal to hold an election in December that will exclude the major opposition party. The junta sharply escalated airstrikes against insurgents this month, ostensibly to make the country more secure during the election, although a shocking number of potential voters have been killed in those aggressive bombing campaigns.
China’s presence will loom large over both the ASEAN and APEC summits as Beijing seeks to use Trump’s tariffs as an opening to realign global trade toward China. Another group that has gained steam by opposing Trump’s tariffs, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), is set to meet on the ASEAN sidelines. The RCEP is a free-trade partnership that counts China as a member, along with Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and about a dozen other countries.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang is scheduled to attend the ASEAN summit in Malaysia, as are Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer. Trump’s dealings with the Chinese in Malaysia will set the table for his rumored bilateral meeting with Xi Jinping in South Korea.
The Asia summits will be a test of strength and cohesion for networks like RCEP and China’s various regional trade partnerships, none of which currently seem strong enough to replace trade with the United States. If Trump can keep big Asian economic powers like Japan and South Korea in America’s economic orbit, Beijing’s ambitions of forming an alternative worldwide economic structure under its leadership will be severely hindered.
Trump’s meeting with Xi, if it occurs, could be the last opportunity to head off 100-percent tariffs on Chinese goods that Trump has threatened to impose in November.
“We have a pretty long meeting scheduled. We can work out a lot of our doubts and questions and our tremendous assets together,” Trump said on Wednesday of his prospective meeting with Xi.
“I think something will work out. We have a very good relationship, but that will be a big one,” he said.
Chinese officials, including Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, said they were optimistic about the Trump-Xi meeting, although Trump threatened to cancel the meeting as recently as two weeks ago, after China imposed sharp restrictions on exports of critical minerals.
Trump put a great deal of effort during the ensuing two weeks to weaken China’s near-monopoly grip on minerals, including a deal with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese that was explicitly intended to curtail China’s use of critical minerals as a trade weapon. Trump seems happy to have the ink on that deal dry before he meets with Xi in South Korea.
The White House would surely love to have President Trump return from Asia with a string of grand-slam diplomatic and trade victories under his belt. The stakes are high. Trump’s aggressive trade policies could be facing their ultimate test next week. The makings of a stronger U.S.-led alliance against Chinese aggression in the Pacific are there — but so are the makings of a realignment toward Beijing as the dominant economic and military force in the region.
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