President Donald Trump’s redistricting war now rests on Florida — and his onetime primary rival Gov. Ron DeSantis.
The Sunshine State is the GOP’s likely best remaining chance to claw back an edge to keep their House majority, after voters approved a gerrymander in Virginia that will allow Democrats to pick up as many as four new seats.
Now all eyes are on Florida to deliver a new map that could net the party anywhere from three to five seats, with legislators scheduled to hold a special session next week. National and state Republicans are counting on DeSantis to deliver on the White House priority and ensure their nine-month redistricting war doesn’t end in a wash.
“This is honestly an all-hands-on-deck moment, because if you lose the House, you’re going to bring, essentially, the agenda to a grinding halt,” said Florida-based GOP strategist Ford O’Connell. “[DeSantis] does this right, and it could give rebirth to his political career.”
DeSantis reached the governor’s mansion during the 2018 cycle with help from well-timed Trump endorsements and became a rising Republican star during the Covid-19 pandemic that led to him challenging the president in the 2024 election. The two had a rapprochement after Trump won, but they aren’t always in lockstep.
“All eyes are on Ron DeSantis and Florida now. It’s a little poetic,” said one Republican operative, granted anonymity to speak candidly, like others in this article. “DeSantis has his marching orders: Take the gloves off like Democrats did in Virginia and California and draw as many districts as you can, legally, for Republicans.”
Any redistricting effort in Florida is bound to run into political and legal obstacles. DeSantis first began clamoring for mid-decade redistricting last summer —- roughly the same time that the White House began pushing for lawmakers in Texas to act. Since then, Trump’s popularity has waned and backlash over high costs of living and his ongoing war in Iran has complicated Republicans’ midterm landscape.
One Florida GOP operative familiar with the governor’s thinking — granted anonymity because he is not authorized to speak publicly — said that DeSantis “would still like to get something done on redistricting. But he realizes the atmospherics for the 2026 election are already in place and it will be tough for Republicans to retain the House regardless of what happens in Florida.”
There are also legal questions over how far DeSantis and GOP lawmakers in Florida can go in redrawing the map, raising doubts about whether they can actually pull it off. The state has a strict ban on redrawing congressional districts for partisan gain, or to help or hurt incumbents. Democrats argue any effort to redraw maps is illegal and will run afoul of this constitutional prohibition.
DeSantis, for his part, has pushed through his own congressional map before, a significant reason why national Republicans are hopeful he can do it again.
In 2022, his new map helped Republicans secure a 20-8 edge and ultimately flip four seats — a feat DeSantis has argued was key to the GOP winning back the House majority at the time. That map was able to withstand legal challenges, but with control of the House again on the line, a redraw now is sure to bring a flurry of lawsuits. One factor in the governor’s favor is that state and federal courts may be loath to order a new map so close to the midterms and could let Florida’s map stand for now.
DeSantis has argued that the last U.S. Census effort was flawed and robbed the state of at least one congressional seat. He also has pointed to ongoing population growth since the Covid-19 pandemic and a pending U.S. Supreme Court decision in a Louisiana redistricting case that could force changes to the map.
He already pointed to one district — that had been held by Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick until she resigned under pressure this Tuesday — as one that should be redrawn.
But the governor, who has already delayed the special session by a week, has yet to publicly release a map with just days left before the session is scheduled to start. Legislative leaders have said it’s up to DeSantis to keep the effort on track.
“By the time we get to Tallahassee, I’m sure there will be a map and the body will consider it at the right time,” said state House Speaker Daniel Perez, a Miami Republican.
Some Republicans in Congress who have been skeptical about going ahead with redistricting said the results in Virginia might have made it necessary for the GOP to react quickly.
“I don’t like this redistricting in the middle of the census, but in light of what Virginia is doing, we may need to respond to that,” said Florida Republican Rep. John Rutherford, who has previously warned against Florida redistricting.
Still, others are worried that an aggressive plan could backfire.
Alex Alvarado, a well-known Florida political consultant who has worked with many prominent Republicans, recently published an analysis that suggested a new map would backfire for the GOP given the current political climate. He suggested it would result in no net gain for Republicans and would give Democrats a chance to win back seats.
“We have already compacted Democrats into such tight districts, the only thing you can do when you are redrawing is cut them out of there,” said Alvarado in an interview. “You have to place those Democratic voters somewhere.”
Adam Kincaid, executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, also cautioned against expectations of sweeping gains due to the state’s “Fair Districts” provisions that ban partisan redistricting.
“I don’t think you’re gonna create deep-blood-red seats all over the state,” he said. “I think we just have to wait and see what the Legislature produces.”
Democrats are already warning they’ll make problems for DeSantis. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Wednesday that they will target Florida and will “finish” the redistricting war Trump started.
“Our message to Florida Republicans is ‘F’ around and find out,” he told reporters.
DeSantis, during a bill signing ceremony in Jacksonville, was not concerned
“‘We’re going to go after Florida.’ Please, be my guest,” DeSantis said of Jeffries. “I will pay for you to come down to Florida and campaign. I’ll put you up in the Florida governor’s mansion. We’ll take you fishing. We’ll do all this stuff.”
For DeSantis, the outcome of the map-drawing gambit is as much political as it is personal. His second term ends in January, and he’s speculated to have his eyes once again on ambitions beyond the Sunshine State.
“If he can deliver, it will at least give him a slingshot back into Trump’s good graces, and maybe even elevated status in the broader Republican movement,” said a second Republican strategist.
For now, the White House seems content to let him take the lead — at least, publicly.
Trump’s political director James Blair, a Florida native and former deputy chief of staff to DeSantis, said Wednesday that has not been involved in the Florida map-drawing process. “If [DeSantis] chooses to go forward, he will draw them in a way that is compliant with the law and we’ll see what happens,” he said on CNN.
“I don’t talk to the governor, I’ve not talked to those folks about it. But again … I think their track record shows that they know how to draw maps in compliance with Florida law and the Florida constitution, and we will see what they do next week,” he said.
Mia McCarthy, Gregory Svirnovskiy, Riley Rogerson and Lisa Kashinsky contributed to this report.
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