Indeed data suggests that a workforce “mismatch” problem rather than AI could cause a job crisis.
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When thinking about the future of work, the big question that seems to be at the top of everyone’s mind these days: How will artificial intelligence impact jobs, and specifically my job?
A new report from Indeed Hiring Lab suggests that the labor market threat is way more complicated than AI disrupting industries and causing massive job loss across the board. The real crisis, the Indeed analysis suggests, could develop from a mismatch between the jobs that are growing and the skills and location of the available workers. The problem, according to the data, is being driven by the convergence of three big trends: the retirement of the baby boomers, slower immigration, and AI reshaping white-collar work.
“There’s basically two forces colliding at once,” says Indeed Hiring Lab economist Laura Ullrich. “One being AI technology shifts and the other being the massive demographic shift that we all have heard about for many years.” If these factors are left unaddressed, Indeed is projecting that unemployment could almost double to nearly 8% by 2040.
Here’s what Indeed experts say employers and workers can do now to prepare, and hopefully avert, this crisis.
What Employers Can Do
Reevaluate job requirements and credential expectations
Priya Rathod, workplace expert at Indeed, says her biggest advice to employers is to not wait to think about future workforce planning. To start, she says leaders need to re-examine the language they use in job descriptions to see if it’s helping or hurting their odds of getting the best talent to apply.
“Are the credentials you’re requiring right now actually necessary or are they just how the role has always been written because that’s really important,” she says. “Instead of thinking, ‘This is how we’ve always done it.’ Think about, ‘What’s going to serve us best in the future?’”
This means getting rid of unnecessary degree requirements, prioritizing transferable skills over rigid career paths, and auditing job descriptions regularly to ensure they match what your company needs not only now, but also in the future.
Invest in training existing employees
One of the most important things Rathod says employers can do right now is to think about what their workforce is going to need and figure out how to invest in and develop the people they already have.
“A lot of workers are investing and upskilling on their own, but it’s best if an employer can guide some of that,” she says. “When you do this, it’s faster and less expensive than finding someone new.”
Data shows that hiring new talent can easily cost employers thousands of dollars when factoring in job advertisements, recruiting tools, and productivity loss for having a vacant role.
Expand recruiting
When looking at the demographic shift and AI’s impact over the next few years, Ullrich says sectors like education, health care, manufacturing, and government have a high population of employees who will be retiring soon and a low probability of job loss from AI. But when looking at the flow of young professionals entering the labor market, many are looking to enter sectors like information, tech, business, and professional services which will be hit hardest by AI disruption.
“[This creates] a matching problem where there are enough jobs and there are enough workers, but they’re not in the right sectors,” says Ullrich.
To address this, employers, particularly those in industries that are seeing high growth, will need to think about how they can recruit employees who are adjacent to their field. This means employers will need to focus more on skill overlap rather than exact experience or degree background.
“There are some fields that are declining and they may have more transferable skills than you expect,” says Rathod. “So don’t be so close-minded when you think about who could be the right fit for a role.”
What Workers Can Do
Focus on human skills that AI cannot replace
“What we’re seeing right now is that human skills are traveling in a way that purely technical skills sometimes don’t,” says Rathod. “We’re hearing again and again that things like communication and critical thinking and leadership and empathy are the skills that are valuable right now across a lot of industries.”
Even with all of the conversations around AI, Rathod says Indeed’s research shows that skills similar to those above appear in nearly three-quarters of all U.S. job postings. Therefore, she says, workers should double down on highlighting these skills on their resume and in job interviews to show they can effectively do a job despite technology’s impact.
Don’t overwhelm yourself with AI literacy
Rathod says that employees don’t need to become AI experts overnight, but they should familiarize themselves with the new technology tools that can complement the work they are already doing.
“Just upskill or reskill is not always helpful advice for someone who’s already stretched thin,” she says. “There’s a lot of people right now who are working multiple jobs, or they’re parents and caregivers and they’re dealing with a lot of things besides working one full-time job.”
If you want to upskill, particularly as it relates to AI, Rathod advises workers to start with tools they have experience using, rather than completely new ones. “Start with the tools you do use because AI is already starting to show up in everyday things like your email and your spreadsheets and your job search platforms,” she says. This way, becoming AI literate is more manageable and you can gradually expand your knowledge on how to use different tools.
Stay open to industries you may not have considered
While it’s hard to definitively know how to future-proof your career, one way to increase your chances of remaining hireable is to open yourself up to different sectors you may not have considered. During a time of uneven job growth, Rathod says it’s wise for professionals to explore whether their current skills provide a pathway to enter a hot field, or if they need to acquire new skills.
For example, if you want to transition into nursing from an outside sector then you’ll obviously have to attain the proper schooling and credentials. But if you’re someone who has a cybersecurity or UX design background in tech then you can easily transfer those skills to a role in health care.
Bottom line, Ullrich explains, is that she doesn’t want people to think that economists are predicting a “a doomsday scenario” when discussing the potential workforce crisis. “This is a situation where if we know what’s ahead of us, there’s much we can do to make sure that that 8% doesn’t happen,” she says.
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