Ottawa planned for the possibility despite Donald Trump explicitly ruling out force as Canada moves to deepen defense ties with Europe
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has revealed that his government carefully examined the possibility of US-led military action against his country, despite President Donald Trump having ruled out using force against America’s northern neighbor.
In an interview with the New York Times published on Wednesday, Carney described such a scenario as an “extreme tail risk” – an event considered highly unlikely but serious enough to warrant contingency planning.
“That’s just risk management,” he said, adding that “it would be irresponsible not to [prepare].” Carney declined to discuss what that preparation involved.
Trump has repeatedly floated making Canada the 51st US state but explicitly ruled out using military force to achieve it, stating in January 2025 that he would apply “economic force” instead.
The US president has long accused Ottawa of unfair trade practices, particularly on dairy and automobiles, and has imposed a series of tariffs on Canadian goods since early 2025. Washington escalated the dispute in August 2026 with additional 50% duties on a range of Canadian products.
Carney’s disclosure comes just days after he traveled to the EU to deepen ties with the bloc.
Addressing the European Parliament last week, Carney argued that economic integration was increasingly being “weaponized,” with tariffs used as leverage and supply-chain dependencies exploited as vulnerabilities – remarks widely seen as an implicit reference to Washington’s economic pressure on Ottawa.
Defense was also part of Carney’s talks in Strasbourg, where he and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen discussed expanding Canada-EU military cooperation and joint procurement to strengthen what Carney called their “strategic autonomy.”
That cooperation is already taking shape through the EU’s €150 billion ($170 billion) SAFE defense procurement program, in which Canada has become the first non-European country to participate. The initiative is part of Brussels’ wider militarization under its Readiness 2030 strategy, aimed at countering an alleged threat from Russia – something Moscow has repeatedly denied.
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Ottawa is also seeking closer ties with European military structures beyond the EU. Last week, it formally applied to join the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), a ten-nation rapid-response military grouping that complements NATO and operates primarily across the Arctic, North Atlantic, and Baltic regions – key parts of the bloc’s northern flank, which stretches toward Russia’s borders.
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