From the power of President Donald Trump’s endorsement to whether the progressive left can win in statewide battleground races, here’s what POLITICO is watching tonight.
1. Wisconsin governor — Democrats’ ideological war
If democratic socialist Francesca Hong triumphs against Milwaukee County executive David Crowley, it would be a major victory for the left.
But she’d still have to convince Democrats — and even some top progressives like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-N.Y.), who’ve stayed out of the race — that she is electable in a general election.
Many Democrats are already warning that Hong could drag down other candidates with her, including in the state’s critical 3rd District. Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Wis.), Hong’s near-certain opponent, has already dubbed her a “radical” and said that her brand of politics does not represent “all Democrats across Wisconsin.”
But it remains unclear if voters will buy that electability case on Tuesday after a tumultuous primary that has seen numerous candidates exit the race.
2. Minnesota Senate — Another test of the left
Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who has endorsements from Sanders, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and retiring Sen. Tina Smith, is trying to defeat the more-moderate Rep. Angie Craig in their race for the Democratic nomination.
The primary has inflamed many of the debates that are central to the Democratic Party, and Trump’s immigration crackdown has become a central focus after federal agents killed two residents this year.
3. South Carolina Senate — Trump’s endorsement
It’s deja vu all over again in the Palmetto State, where Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette fell to Attorney General Alan Wilson in the gubernatorial primary (who Trump also endorsed very late in the race) just seven weeks ago.
Now, it’s Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) who will test the power of Trump’s endorsement as she runs for her late brother’s open Senate seat.
The crowded race is likely to head to a runoff, with Reps. Russell Fry and Ralph Norman appearing to have the best shot at securing the second slot behind Graham.
Trump’s endorsement power will also be tested in Wisconsin’s 7th District, where Michael Alfonso, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy’s 26-year-old son-in-law, is running to replace Tiffany in the safe-red seat against two well-funded opponents.
4. Connecticut’s 1st District — Generational change
Over in Connecticut, Democratic Rep. John Larson is facing the first serious primary challenge of his roughly three-decade career in the House.
Larson is facing former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, who is running mostly on the anti-incumbent fervor that has toppled other establishment Democrats this cycle.
But where many of those races focused not just on longtime incumbency but also ideology, Bronin and Larson don’t share as sharply defined policy differences. In fact, the Working Families Party — which has boosted other left-wing challengers across the country this year — is sticking behind Larson and accusing Bronin of being boosted by corporate interests.
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