Notching a first-place primary finish with an endorsement from President Donald Trump seems like a surefire path to victory in a deep-red state — unless you’re headed into a GOP runoff in South Carolina in 2026.
Sen. Darline Graham scored her first ever electoral win as a political novice on Tuesday night, advancing to a runoff with Rep. Ralph Norman. Now comes the hard part.
Just ask Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, who, despite winning Trump’s endorsement and holding the lead after the first round of voting in June’s gubernatorial primary, eventually lost to Attorney General Alan Wilson in the runoff. Wilson’s momentum also won him a rare dual endorsement from Trump in the final days of the race.
“The long and short of it, [Graham’s] got a pretty low ceiling,” one national GOP operative, who was granted anonymity to speak openly, told POLITICO in the lead-up to the race.
Still, in a faceoff with Norman, Graham has an easier case to make that she alone is the Trump-aligned candidate. Norman has at times been a thorn in Trump’s side from his Freedom Caucus perch on Capitol Hill — and he drew the president’s ire when he endorsed former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley for president in 2024.
“I asked for the president’s endorsement, didn’t get it. Anybody would want the endorsement, but he chose who he did, and that’s fine,” Norman told reporters Tuesday from his election night party. “South Carolina’s going to decide the next senator.”
How much Trump decides to boost his preferred candidate could play a decisive role in helping push Graham to a runoff victory. Despite his pro-forma Truth Social posts and telerally on election eve, Trump has not publicly signaled whether he will appear on the campaign trail with Graham during the two-week runoff.
Another possible path to victory for Graham lies in a lesson from Wilson’s runoff success: He was quick to consolidate support from several of his first-round primary opponents, including scoring endorsements from Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) and Norman.
Endorsements from former Gov. Mark Sanford and up-and-coming GOP Rep. Russell Fry — who lost the first-round Senate primary — will be key in the abbreviated two-week faceoff between Graham and Norman.
Evette has yet to endorse in the Senate race. Neither has Wilson — but his advice to the runoff candidates is to focus on the issues rather than bashing each other.
“I don’t think negative campaigning is going to make you look better, and it’s not going to get you more votes,” Wilson told POLITICO, adding that he will appear on the campaign trail with both candidates ahead of the Aug. 25 runoff.
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