Progressives wanted to have won by now.
They were expecting a decisive and early victory in Michigan’s high-profile Senate race. Now, the closer-than-anticipated margins are giving some progressives heartburn — and moderate Democrats reason for cautious optimism.
Bhaskar Sunkara, a 2020 Bernie Sanders surrogate and former DSA vice chair, told POLITICO that he had his hopes up after recent polling showed progressive former public health official Abdul El-Sayed with a lead. Still, he said: “Any win is good, as long as it’s called tonight.”
One Democratic operative and El-Sayed supporter working on progressive campaigns in Michigan said they were “staying calm” and not panicking yet.
“Abdul not off track but not knocking it out of the park right now,” the operative texted, granted anonymity to speak candidly.
“It seems like it’s going to be close,” said a second El-Sayed backer, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “It’s all about can Abdul stay relatively competitive with Black voters in Wayne County and if he can fight Haley to a draw in Oakland County,” which is her home turf.
Michigan’s Senate race will offer the clearest measure yet of the ideological direction of the Democratic Party, testing the relative power of the party’s progressive and moderate wings in a key battleground — with major implications for 2028.
In the contest’s closing stretch, public polling showed El-Sayed leading Stevens by a wide, double-digit margin. But whether tonight’s results amount to a progressive wave, a rebuke of the movement’s viability — or a muddied combination of the two possible outcomes — still remains unanswered.
Some Democrats admonished El-Sayed’s progressive allies for swaggering into Election Day, claiming his campaign’s bluster inflated expectations. A third Democratic operative granted anonymity to speak candidly blamed El-Sayed for attending a pool party with progressive streamer Hasan Piker on Monday, hours before polls opened.
“These guys are unbelievably cocky,” the person said. “If the result is close tonight, there should be some real reflection. These guys have fucked up the expectations game.”
Several centrist Democrats, meanwhile, are encouraged by Stevens outperforming expectations, even as they resign themselves to El-Sayed’s front-runner status.
“Haley’s over performing in a few places, but no one is expecting a miracle,” said a fourth Democratic operative, who is working to elect moderate candidates and was granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Progressive William Lawrence won the nomination in Michigan’s 7th District, but only because two more-moderate candidates split the vote among their wing of the party. Moderate Democrats were also fortified by Rep. Wesley Bell’s decisive victory over former Rep. Cori Bush, a high-profile DSA-backed progressive who threatened to avenge her 2024 primary loss to Bell, earlier in the night.
“It’s a great reminder that while the attention is being dominated by Michigan, there are vital races happening elsewhere in which moderates are defeating radicals,” the fourth Democratic operative said.
Will Steakin, Lisa Kashinsky and Adam Wren contributed to this report.
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