The fate of the Senate majority could lie in the hands of 601 yet-to-be-chosen Maine Democrats. And Chuck Schumer, known for working every possible angle to give his party’s campaigns an edge, is largely helpless to do anything about it.
The sidelines are an unusual place for the longtime Senate Democratic leader. Known for his heavy-handed interventions during his successful tenure leading the party’s campaign arm, his well-documented recruiting in key battleground races this year and penchant for near-constant backchanneling via his signature flip phone, Schumer is well aware he is now facing a new political reality.
If he were to publicly back a candidate ahead of the party’s nominating convention later this month, it would likely be used against that candidate by his or her opponents. Instead, with a truncated primary timeline, Schumer is keeping his focus on the general election in November — and on defeating a longtime nemesis, veteran Republican Sen. Susan Collins.
Asked in a brief interview Tuesday if he would endorse a candidate before the July 25 convention, Schumer said, “I’m staying out of Maine.”
Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois, the No. 2 Democratic leader, said in an interview Schumer’s reticence makes sense: “At this point, there are so many nominees and possibilities, I can see why he’s holding back.”
One person with knowledge of Schumer’s thinking said the New York Democrat is leaving the 11-hour primary battle up to Mainers. Two other people close to Schumer, who were also granted anonymity to speak candidly about his approach, said he would stay far away from the race to replace Graham Platner and not pick a favorite — at least not publicly — in part out of concern that if he picks a candidate it could backfire.
“He doesn’t want to put his thumb on the scale,” said a fourth person, a Democratic strategist. “Anyone he wants would be toxic.”
Schumer’s previous intervention in the Granite State already fell flat this cycle. He spent months wooing Gov. Janet Mills to enter the race against Collins, assuming the four-term statewide office holder would be best positioned to appeal to the older women who have been a key element of the incumbent’s coalition.
But Mills, 78, ran a listless campaign, raised little money and watched as 41-year-old insurgent Graham Platner captured the hearts of Maine Democrats and broad national attention.
Schumer’s reliance on a known quantity is looking more prudent in hindsight — especially after POLITICO reported this month on a woman’s accusation that Platner forced her to have sex with him. Platner has denied the allegation but ended his campaign after it emerged.
As the saga played out in recent weeks, Schumer has refrained from stepping into the renewed primary battle. Instead, in an initial statement responding to the rape allegation, Schumer and DSCC Chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) said Maine Democrats should have “the opportunity to choose a new candidate who can defeat Susan Collins.”
After Platner withdrew, Schumer sidestepped the primary all together, saying in a statement that “Democrats are going to defeat Susan Collins, win Maine, and take back the Senate.” It’s similar to the tack Schumer took last month as questions piled up about Platner’s background.
Behind the scenes, several Maine candidates said they have seen no evidence that Schumer or the Washington-based groups he holds major influence over — the DSCC and Senate Majority PAC — have intervened in the renomination process.
A spokesperson for Nirav Shah and a person close to Shanna Bellows, who were granted anonymity to discuss internal conversations, said the two campaigns had not heard from Schumer or the groups. A person close to businessman Dan Kleban, also granted anonymity, said he was unaware of any outreach. A spokesperson for Troy Jackson did not respond to a request for comment.
While Schumer is keeping his distance from the primary, he’s still a character in it. Several contenders have been asked to weigh in on whether he should continue as Democratic leader. Kleban posted an article last week titled in part, “I Won’t Vote for Chuck Schumer for Leader.”
It’s not just Schumer who is tapping out as Maine Democrats choose a successor for Platner. Several senators in the progressive wing of Schumer’s caucus who had earlier backed Platner over Mills — including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) — also say they have no plans to endorse before the convention.
Several had defended Platner as damaging revelations emerged, including after a New York Times story that detailed disturbing accounts from several ex-girlfriends, then called for him to drop out in the wake of the POLITICO report.
“They have a process,” Heinrich said of Maine Democrats. “They’re the most informed people to figure out who best to pick up the mantle.”
The DSCC for its part is letting the Maine Democratic Party lead the renomination process and is otherwise focused on defeating Collins and building resources for the eventual nominee, according to a person granted anonymity to discuss private strategy. The group has also started a fund that is expected to be transferred to the nominee once named.
It still amounts to a leap of faith given the high stakes for Senate Democrats. They started the two-year election cycle as clear underdogs given which states were set to be contested in 2026. Now they believe they are within striking distance thanks to Trump’s low approval numbers and political headwinds for the GOP including the ongoing Iran war.
But to flip the majority, Democrats need to effectively run the table — flipping four GOP seats while holding onto all of their own.
Democrats have long viewed Maine as a crucial if not strictly essential element to any path to the majority. While Schumer has touted his recruiting coups in states like Alaska, North Carolina and Ohio, they were all won by Donald Trump in 2024. Collins is the only Republican running in a state won by Kamala Harris.
If Democrats’ can’t win Maine, they would need to flip Iowa or Texas — two states they believe they’ve put on the board through recruiting but have a strong recent history of electing Republicans to federal office.
“Despite all the attacks Chuck Schumer’s been facing, the reason why Democrats are in a position to take over the Senate is because of Schumer’s candidate recruitment, fundraising and organizing,” said Robert Zimmerman, a Democratic National Committee member from New York.
Those who have had a front-row seat to Schumer’s inveterate politicking over the years are taking note of the dilemma he now faces.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) said he was “not surprised” by Schumer staying out of the race as the party undertakes a messy sprint to pick a new nominee.
“I can imagine why he would stay out of it,” he said. “I can imagine why he would get into it.”
Andrew Howard, Jessica Piper and Calen Razor contributed to this report.
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