Initial claims for jobless benefits remain near historic lows, and continuing claims fell to the lowest level in two years, indicating a level of job security with little precedent in the modern era.
The number of new claims for state unemployment benefits inched up last week to 210,000, up by 5,000 from the prior week. The four-week moving average of claims, a measure economists see as a better guide to the health of the labor market, dipped to 210,500, a decline of 250.
In data going back to 1967, the four-week average of new claims has only been this low or lower five percent of the time, in 170 of the 3,086 weeks during those decades.
The all-time low was in 1969, when claims fell to 179,000. But the workforce was much smaller then and many young Americans were serving in the Vietnam War, depressing the labor supply.
Compared with the size of the civilian workforce, the current four-week average is among the lowest 1.6 percent in records going back to 1967. Compared to the number of people employed, it is in the bottom 0.7 percent.
Initial claims are a proxy for layoffs. The historic lows indicate that very few Americans are losing their jobs despite a volatile stock market, slower growth at the tail end of last year, and rising fuel prices.
Continued claims, which measure the number of people who collect claims after the first week of unemployment, fell by 32,000 to 1.819 million in the week ended March 14. That is the lowest level since March of 2024. By historical standards, continuing claims are in roughly the lowest sixth of readings going back to 1967, meaning they’ve been higher 83 percent of the time.
Relative to employment and the total labor force, continuing claims have been this low or lower only about seven percent of the time since 1967.
President Trump’s immigration policies and stepped-up border enforcement are likely playing a role in discouraging layoffs. Without the assurance of millions of new workers arriving—three million arrived on average in each of President Biden’s final two years in office—employers are deciding to keep current jobholders in place. Last year, around 500,000 immigrants arrived, but many more foreigners left the country, resulting in a net decrease that may have been as high as 395,000, according to a Brookings Institution estimate.
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