James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash underperformed in Thursday night previews. And this is an underperformance of its expected underperformance — at least compared to its two predecessors.
The Disney sycophants at Deadline do their best to spin this underperformance, but as you will see, their logic makes little sense.
Fire and Ash grossed just $12 million on its opening day preview. This is a lot less than the $17 million Avatar: Way of the Water grossed on its first Thursday night in 2022.
“Keep in mind that we’re closer to Christmas, hence audiences are bound to come out for this 3-hour and 17-minute James Cameron threequel once they’re past distractions,” writes the sycophants at Deadline.
Oh, so if opening this close to Christmas on December 18 hurt the box office, how was the following possible for these Thursday night, week-before-Christmas previews: Aquaman — December 20, 2018, at $13.7 million; and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker — December 19, 2019, at $40 million?
“It’s also right on the money with Disney/Marvel Studios’ Thursday night previews of Captain America: Brave New World (2PM start, first Friday/previews of $40.9M, 3-day of $88.8M),” writes Deadline. “Keep in mind, though, that Marvel movies carry a lot of FOMO, hence the rush out, while Avatar movies for audiences are about finding the right showtimes and seats.”
Wait, what…?
Is “finding the right showtimes and seats” a problem in 2025 when it wasn’t for $5 million more in box office for Way of the Water in 2022?
Dear Deadline: You don’t have to humiliate yourselves like this — not for Avatar. There’s a legitimate caveat for these early box office returns: and that’s Avatar’s incredible staying power. Neither Avatar (2009) nor Way of the Water opened huge. But, man, they just kept going and going and going as fans saw them again and again and again.
I’m in no way writing off Fire and Ash as a flop or a disappointment or even a terrible underperformer. There’s something special about these movies. I don’t get it, but millions do, and no one knows what will happen, especially over the two-week holiday, when the box office is at its least predictable.
Nonetheless, if Fire and Ash does disappoint, there is no excuse to hide behind. Not its three-plus-hour runtime when Way of the Water was three-plus hours. Not COVID, when Way of the Water came out post-COVID. Not streaming, when Way of the Water came out at the height of streaming.
Sorry, sycophants, there’s no place to run.
But, again, I am in no way predicting anything — not when it comes to Avatar, James Cameron, or the Christmas box office.
John Nolte’ s first and last novel Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.
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