With a little less than a year to go before the 2026 midterm elections, a Marist Poll shows Democrats leading Republicans by a massive +14 points in the generic ballot.
“Democrats currently have a 14-point lead against the Republicans among registered voters nationally on the 2026 generic congressional ballot question,” writes Marist. “This has changed considerably. Since 2022, voters have been divided about which party’s candidate they would support.”
This, even though those polled “place most of the blame for the shutdown on congressional Democrats.” Still, “six in ten [blame] either the President or the GOP in Congress.”
When asked which political party they would prefer to control Congress, 55 percent of those polled said Democrats, while only 41 percent said the GOP.
“This is the first time in more than three years that Democrats have had a notable advantage on the congressional generic ballot question,” the pollster adds. “When last asked in November of 2024, registered voters divided, 48% to 48%.”
This is the Democrat Party’s biggest lead in years. The last notable lead Democrats enjoyed (in this same poll) was a +7 in June of 2022.
The list of voter priorities might help to understand this 14-point blowout:
- Lowering prices: 57%
- Controlling immigration: 16%
- Reducing crime: 9%
- Ending the war between Ukraine and Russia: 7%
- Maintaining peace between Israel and Gaza: 6%
- Eliminating drug traffic from Latin America: 4%
Other than having a full year to rectify this, there is some good news for the GOP: as of right now, at least, this poll is a major outlier.
In the RealClearPolitics poll of polls, which includes this Marist poll in the average, Democrats are only up by 4.8 points — which is still a pretty sweet lead. Historically, if that holds, that’s enough of a lead to assume control of the U.S. House. Should Democrats take the U.S. House, that would pretty much kill the final two years of President Trump’s presidency. Nothing would get done. Democrats would serially impeach and investigate him. And that would be a real shame.
As much as I hate to admit it, much of this is the fault of the Trump Administration. As great as Trump’s accomplishments have been, much of his focus has been overseas instead of on the economy. Additionally, as I wrote yesterday, Trump 2.0 would be batting a thousand had they not so terribly bungled the Epstein Files issue. During the campaign, they promised to release the files and then didn’t. Why? Why? Why!? Now the White House is willing to release the files, but it looks like they were dragged into it because, for some inexplicable reason, they were.
Instead of coming out of the Schumer Shutdown with the wind at their backs, this unforced error has them wrapped around an axle looking caught off guard and distracted. What a fumble.
If Republicans are going to avoid a 2026 wipeout, like the one they experienced a couple of weeks ago, the economy needs to improve. Gas prices need to come down. Job reports need to bloom. Food prices must at least stabilize.
As crazy, as irresponsible, as extreme, as un-American, as anti-Western civilization, and as violent as Democrats have become, we could be looking at a Big Beautiful Blue Wave if the economy doesn’t start coming to life by next summer.
John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.
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