SACRAMENTO, California — Gavin Newsom could have been humiliated had his gerrymandering campaign gone differently. Instead, he’s rocketing toward the 2028 primary with the wind at his back.
Polling suggests Proposition 50 will pass comfortably on Tuesday — delivering the governor a victory on the national stage and saving him from the sort of agonizing near-loss he endured during his last signature ballot measure campaign.
More than that, his team parlayed the campaign into an explosion of new, small-dollar donors outside California who could supercharge his expected presidential campaign. Newsom’s political machine got yet another practice run ahead of 2028. And millions of dollars worth of ads featuring Newsom standing up to President Donald Trump flooded the zone in California for weeks.
Even the state’s precarious budget situation — the kind of thing that could hobble a sitting governor in a presidential campaign — has improved markedly in recent months.
Which brings Newsom to an apex in his political life.
Never before has he been such a focal point of the national Trump resistance. He broke free from a short-lived detente with the president earlier this year with widely viewed social media trolling, a spin through the early primary state of South Carolina and continuous sparring with Trump over his deployment of troops to California streets.
The likely redistricting win would be icing on the cake, not only winning the governor attention but stacking an anti-MAGA achievement onto his resume that could serve as valuable campaign fodder in a sprawling Democratic field.
Early polling on (and modeling of) the Democratic primary has shown the political benefits of Newsom’s blend of bombast and action against the president. Most surveys place Newsom at or near the top of the potential field, even if a recent poll of New Hampshire voters had him trailing former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg in that early primary state.
But, but, but … It’s extremely early. The field is far from set. Newsom will have to navigate more fractious policy fights between core constituencies during his last year governing California, if his first seven are any indication. And once term limits do force him out nearly two years before the general election, he’ll lose the news-making platform of the governor’s office.
Even on Tuesday night, he will be sharing the spotlight. Across the country, Zohran Mamdani, the front-runner in New York’s mayoral election, is galvanizing the left flank of Newsom’s party.But it’s Newsom, not Mamdani, rising on 2028 shortlists. And if Prop 50 passes, as expected, Newsom will be poised to continue his ascent.
Like this content? Consider signing up for POLITICO’s California Playbook newsletter.
Read the full article here