Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA) is leading a competitive three-way race for the Georgia Republican Senate primary, despite heavy establishment backing for his opponent Derek Dooley, a new survey shows.
Collins, who represents Georgia’s 10th congressional district and owns his own trucking company, is up against Gov. Brian Kemp (R)-endorsed Dooley, a first-time candidate, former University of Tennessee football coach, and lawyer; and Rep. Buddy Carter (R-GA), a pharmacist and longtime GOP lawmaker representing the state’s 1st congressional district. Republicans are vying to snag the seat of Democrat Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA), who was first elected in 2020 and has been dubbed the “most vulnerable” Democrat up for reelection.
A new independently commissioned survey conducted by Quantus Insights, and obtained first by Breitbart News before its release, shows Collins leading in all tested scenarios, despite a push for Dooley from Georgia’s establishment wing. The results “suggest that money and endorsements alone aren’t reshaping the field, at least not yet,” Quantus assessed. A large portion of Republican voters (40 percent) are undecided seven months out from election day, so however those voters sway will determine whether Collins’s lead is solidified or whether the race becomes more contentious going forward, the pollster found.
In a ballot test, Collins garners 28 percent support, ahead of Carter’s 16.1 percent and Dooley’s 16.0 percent, with 40 percent still undecided. In a head-to-head matchup, Collins leads Carter 38.4 percent to 23.4 percent with 38.2 percent unsure, while Collins leads Dooley 42.0 percent to 23.8 percent with 34.1 percent unsure, the survey found.
Collins also leads with undecided leaners 14.3 percent to Carter’s 9.2 percent and Dooley’s 9.1 percent, with most choosing to remain uncommitted. Quantus said in its analysis that the results among undecided leaners signals that Collins “has the widest ‘soft’ lane to consolidate.” More modeling suggests Carter and Dooley “would require unlikely levels of undecided consolidation to overtake” Collins, the pollster added.
“At the same time, Governor Kemp’s endorsement of Derek Dooley has fueled a significant paid-media push, with both Kemp’s federal PAC and Dooley’s campaign investing heavily in television advertising statewide and on Atlanta broadcast stations,” Quantus said in its assessment of the data. “Despite that increased spend and visibility, Dooley’s gains appear to be limited in scope, and the overall structure of the race remains largely unchanged since September. Carter’s heavier ad investment has yet to translate into voter growth, suggesting name recognition is nearing saturation while Collins retains crossover appeal among fiscal conservatives and Trump-aligned voters.”
“Head-to-head data indicate Carter’s supporters align more closely with Collins than with Dooley. As undecideds break and lower-tier candidates fade, Carter’s base is more likely to migrate toward Collins,” the survey report continues.
Collins (31.6 percent) also leads Carter (19.3 percent) and Dooley (17.5 percent) when respondents were asked which candidate is strong enough to take on Ossoff in the general election. Thirty-one percent of respondents say they are not sure.
RealClear Polling averages for the 2026 Georgia Senate race so far also show Collins presenting the greatest challenge to Ossoff. Per RCP, Ossoff has a projected narrow 2.3-point lead over Collins, compared to a 3.6-point lead over Carter, and a 6-point lead over Dooley. The Cook Political Report has rated the race a “toss-up.”
Survey participants were asked to weigh in on the level of impact endorsements from Kemp and President Donald Trump have on their vote in the primary.
Nearly 21 percent say Kemp’s endorsement is “very important” and 35.5 percent say it is “somewhat important,” while 20.3 percent say it is “not very important,” and nearly 24 percent say it is “not important at all.”
President Trump has yet to endorse a candidate in the race but said on October 15 that “some very good people are running.”
“And I understand that I haven’t made a decision yet,” Trump said. “But I’m following that race very carefully.”
“It’s very important for Georgia to get a real senator because the senator they have now is a horrible senator,” Trump said of incumbent Sen. Ossoff. “Those people are great and they deserve a good senator, because the man they have now is a weak, ineffective person.”
Out of respondents polled, nearly 31 percent say they are “much more likely” to support a Trump-backed candidate, and 23 percent say they are “somewhat more likely.” A third say his endorsement has “no impact,” while nearly 9 percent say they are “much less likely” to support a Trump-endorsed candidate, and 3 percent say they are “somewhat less likely.”
According to Quantus, the poll indicates younger and more diverse GOP voters are less decided on a candidate, and younger voters are less excited for the election. The results also show younger and more diverse GOP voters are less influenced by Trump endorsements, and show younger voters respond better to Dooley when presented with his profile as an outside candidate.
The poll, conducted by Quantus Insights using SMS messaging with 1,320 likely Georgia Republican primary voters between Oct. 21-22, 2025, was stratified by region, age, and gender. The margin of error is ±2.7 percentage points with a confidence level of 95 percent.
The Georgia Republican Senate Primary election is on May 19, 2026. If any candidate does not receive more than 50 percent of votes, the top two contenders will compete in a run-off race before the winner challenges Ossoff in November.
Katherine Hamilton is a political reporter for Breitbart News. You can follow her on X @thekat_hamilton.
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