Rafael Grossi, Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said on Saturday that his agency believes “the majority” of Iran’s stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium survived bombing runs from Israel and the United States in June.
Grossi said during an interview with a Swiss newspaper that the IAEA believes most of the uranium is still stored in Iran’s three primary nuclear facilities at Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz. All three facilities were hit by devastating airstrikes from the United States in June.
The latest IAEA report estimated Iran has about 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity, which is far beyond any conceivable civilian use, but just shy of weapons-grade material. The IAEA has been asking Iran to account for the uranium ever since the June airstrikes, but the Iranians have not been very cooperative.
“Will we get access to this uranium? And what will happen to it then? Will Iran want to keep it, will it reduce its enrichment levels again, or will Iran move this uranium abroad? There are many options,” Grossi said on Friday.
Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, have said that while U.S. strikes inflicted severe damage on Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz, most of the uranium already enriched by Iran survived the strikes, and is buried in the rubble of the facilities.
The Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) reported last week that satellite imagery suggests Iran is beginning to excavate the tunnels leading into the buried Isfahan complex.
“However, the visible activity does not indicate a dash to remove possible centrifuge or enriched uranium stocks inside the tunnel complex; rather it points more towards preparing controlled and secure access to two of the three tunnel entrances, and hardening the entrances and utilities against future strikes,” ISIS said.
Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) non-proliferation expert Andrea Striker said Grossi’s comments echoed findings by the U.S. and Israeli governments that Iran’s uranium stockpile is intact, but most of it lies buried in the rubble of the destroyed facilities, and Iran’s ability to process the 60-percent uranium into weapons-grade material has been destroyed for the time being.
“Should it attempt to recover and relocate the stocks, Tehran would be gambling on whether those two countries will militarily act to stop the regime,” Stricker said.
Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said on Monday that Iran has canceled its inspection agreement with the IAEA, thus ending the last vestiges of its cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog.
Larijani said Iran was making good on its threat to stop working with the IAEA if the European signatories to the 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the JCPOA, invoked “snapback” sanctions against Iran.
The so-called E3 nations – France, Germany, and the United Kingdom – initiated the process of snapback sanctions in August, on the grounds that Iran was failing to meet its obligations under the JCPOA. The Trump administration applauded the move, saying it was long overdue for the E3 to join America’s assessment that Iran was cheating on the deal.
The U.N. Security Council (UNSC) imposed snapback sanctions in September. Enraged Iranian officials demanded the rest of the world ignore the sanctions to continue doing business with Tehran. So far, only China and Russia have stood behind Iran.
“Our foreign minister announced after the Cairo meeting that if the trigger mechanism is activated, the negotiations will be considered null and void,” Larijani said on Monday, referring to a meeting between Iranian officials and IAEA representatives in Cairo last month.
“If the agency has a request in this regard, it should submit it to the secretariat of the supreme national security council so that it can be reviewed,” he sniffed.
Larijani said Tehran believes “applying the trigger mechanism was a wrongdoing on the part of Europe that has no basis, and in fact, the Europeans abused the snapback, while the Iranians had met all the conditions for the past 10 years.”
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