Democrats are facing growing concern in New Jersey as the state’s gubernatorial race tightens and new data shows Republicans gaining an early advantage in mail-in voting ahead of the November election.
Updated figures this week indicate that Republican ballot returns have surpassed Democrats for the first time in the 2025 cycle, reflecting a shift that has intensified challenges for Rep. Mikie Sherrill’s campaign against former state lawmaker Jack Ciattarelli.
According to election analyst Michael Pruser, 18.6 percent of all mail-in ballots returned so far are from Republican voters, compared to 16.6 percent from Democrats and 9.3 percent from other parties. Republicans now hold a two-point lead in return rates, and the mail-in vote is six points more Republican than at the same point in 2024, when Democrats led the early count. Overall, Democrats still account for a majority of ballots mailed, about 62.3 percent, but the higher Republican return rate marks a notable reversal from past trends.
The developments come as Axios reported that national Democrats are increasingly alarmed about Sherrill’s campaign performance, describing growing concern that the party could lose the governor’s race in a traditionally Democrat state. Several party strategists told Axios that Sherrill’s operation has suffered from “a series of stumbles” and an unclear message, despite heavy investment from national groups.
Some Democrats told Axios that Sherrill, a former Navy pilot and four-term member of Congress, is “a better candidate on paper than in reality.” They said she has been too scripted, has not focused enough on high prices, and has relied too heavily on staff from Washington rather than New Jersey-based operatives. Democrat strategist Irene Lin, who is not working on the race, observed that Sherrill “has spent a fortune on polling and has no message beyond she flies helicopters and Ciattarelli loves Trump,” warning that “tired anti-Trump attacks aren’t enough.”
The Axios report also described internal party frustration after Sherrill faced criticism for her handling of questions about personal finances and stock trades. In a May interview with radio host Charlamagne tha God, she appeared uncertain when asked about her family’s wealth and whether she made $7 million through stock trades as alleged in conservative media, replying, “I, I haven’t … I don’t believe I did,” before saying she would have to check the source of the claim. The incident drew renewed scrutiny when Ciattarelli’s campaign launched a website titled MikieMadeMillions.com highlighting the exchange.
Another issue surfaced when Sherrill struggled to name a specific piece of legislation she would prioritize if elected governor during an interview with CBS New York, which Ciattarelli’s campaign later used in an ad portraying her as unprepared. A pro-Ciattarelli super PAC also released an ad featuring Sherrill saying clean energy would “cost you an arm and a leg, but if you’re a good person, you’ll do it.” Axios clarified that Sherrill had been criticizing her own party’s messaging at the time, not advocating for higher costs.
A spokesperson for the Republican Governors Association, which supports the group behind the ad, declined to directly address taking Sherrill out of context and instead issued a statement criticizing her record on energy. Sherrill’s campaign responded that she has focused on lowering costs for New Jersey families since the start of her campaign, citing her strong primary performance and steady polling lead. Campaign manager Alex Ball told Axios that Sherrill’s focus on affordability “has been her message since Day One,” and added that she does not own or trade individual stocks.
Meanwhile, Ciattarelli has stepped up outreach to working-class and minority voters, with Axios noting that Democrats are concerned about his efforts to make inroads in black communities that usually vote overwhelmingly for their party. Both candidates have aired ads focused on high utility costs, with Ciattarelli promising tax relief and energy reforms while Sherrill has emphasized clean power and economic competitiveness.
Polling has shown the race effectively tied. An Emerson College, PIX11, and The Hill survey conducted September 22 through 23 found both candidates at 43 percent support with 11 percent of voters undecided. The result mirrored similar findings from late September and underscored how competitive the contest has become in a state President Joe Biden won by double digits in 2020.
The tightening race follows weeks of debate over Sherrill’s background at the United States Naval Academy, where she was barred from walking at her 1994 graduation after refusing to identify classmates involved in a cheating scandal. Her campaign has argued the episode is being misrepresented by political opponents while defending her decade of military service. Questions have also emerged regarding the admissions of two of her children to the Naval Academy, though Sherrill’s campaign has stated they applied through New Jersey’s United States senators to avoid any conflict of interest.
Ciattarelli has capitalized on these controversies, framing them as part of a broader question of transparency and accountability. He has also benefited from growing Republican enthusiasm, supported by endorsements from former Democrats and organized labor leaders dissatisfied with the state’s direction under Democrat leadership. The Republican candidate, endorsed by President Donald Trump, has focused his messaging on lowering taxes, supporting law enforcement, and addressing economic concerns across the state.
Grassroots organizers have emphasized the significance of voter turnout as the deciding factor. Early Vote Action’s Scott Presler told Breitbart News Saturday that the race is “winnable” for Republicans but will depend on maximizing both early and Election Day participation. Presler highlighted that the 2021 contest was decided by just 84,000 votes despite hundreds of thousands of Republicans staying home, urging voters to take advantage of early voting and mail-in options to avoid potential Election Day complications.
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