An A2 Insights poll shows Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears narrowing the gap against Democrat Abigail Spanberger in Virginia’s gubernatorial contest, placing the race within the margin of error as voters head into the final stretch before November’s election.
Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is now just three points behind former Democrat Rep. Abigail Spanberger in the race to become Virginia’s next governor, according to a new survey. The A2 Insights poll, conducted September 26–28, shows Spanberger with 47.7 percent support and Earle-Sears with 44.6 percent, placing the contest within the poll’s margin of error.
The tightening poll comes after a series of controversies that have defined Spanberger’s campaign. In September, she faced backlash after encouraging supporters to “let your rage fuel you” at multiple events, a phrase she has repeated on the trail. Earle-Sears, who is running on a message of unity, pushed back by declaring, “Virginia is for lovers — not rage.”
Spanberger has also been pressed to clarify her position on men participating in women’s sports and using female restrooms. During a recent media availability, she described past state-level processes for handling such cases on a “one-by-one basis” but did not offer a clear yes or no answer, while Earle-Sears has consistently opposed biological males competing in women’s athletics or accessing female private spaces.
The Democrat candidate has also come under scrutiny for endorsements and campaign connections. Chesterfield County School Board member Dot Heffron, who endorsed Spanberger in 2023, sparked outrage after praising the assassination of Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk, prompting Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) to call for Heffron’s resignation. Spanberger later issued a statement condemning “any efforts to justify or minimize” political violence. Similarly, a staffer for Spanberger’s campaign was accused of celebrating Kirk’s assassination on social media, posting “F around and find out.” Earle-Sears and the Republican Party of Virginia called on Spanberger to condemn the remarks and cut ties.
Immigration has also been a flashpoint in the race. Spanberger confirmed in August that, if elected, she would rescind Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s executive order requiring cooperation with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), effectively pledging to turn Virginia into a sanctuary state. Youngkin responded that Spanberger was prioritizing “dangerous criminals” over Virginians’ safety, while Earle-Sears vowed to uphold strict enforcement.
Spanberger has faced criticism from national figures as well. President Donald Trump took aim at her for supporting “men in women’s sports” and “open borders,” pointing to her refusal to clearly state opposition to biologically male athletes competing in girls’ competitions. Earle-Sears amplified Trump’s remarks, saying Virginians must reject policies that endanger women and families.
The campaign trail has also been marked by inflammatory rhetoric. In Arlington, protesters displayed a sign attacking Earle-Sears that compared her stance on transgender policies to segregation, drawing widespread condemnation from leaders across both parties. Spanberger labeled the sign “racist and abhorrent.”
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