The views of Ukrainian citizens on what kind of end to the Russian invasion they want has totally inverted since the war began, polling finds, with a clear majority now supporting a negotiated end “as soon as possible”.
69 per cent of Ukrainians say their country “should seek to negotiate an ending to the war as soon as possible”, polling by Gallup has found, a figure that has absolutely soared since 2022 when the war first began. Back in 2022, 73 per cent of Ukrainians said they believed the answer was the nation continuing to fight “until it wins the war”, while just 22 per cent supported negotiations.
Today, just 24 per cent support fighting to the bitter end. Gallup acknowledges they were unable to poll areas of the country under Russian occupation equivalent to around 10 per cent of Ukraine’s population, but nevertheless said their research showed support for the war was falling across all regions and all demographics.
Despite the soaring support for fast peace, Ukrainians showed themselves in the Gallup interviews to be very sceptical about the end being near. Just five per cent say they believe it is “very likely” there will be a “lasting end” to fighting within 12 months. In all, 25 per cent said it was very or slightly likely, while a clear majority at 68 per cent said they found it slightly or very unlikely fighting would end.
Belief that Ukraine is on course to join the NATO alliance is also plummeting, Gallup found. For the first time more people think Ukraine will “never” join NATO than membership happening within ten years. A further 25 per cent said it could happen, but not until 10 or even more than 20 years away.
Back in 2022, the number of Ukrainians who thought NATO membership was on the near horizon was double what it is polled to be now.
The country showed itself more optimistic about the European Union, however. A clear majority thinks it is coming, with just 18 per cent reporting they believe Ukraine will “never” join the globalist bloc.
The latest Gallup figures comes as negotiations between the United States and Russian Federation show potential to enter a more productive phase, with talk of direct talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin within a week. Yet an even more potentially productive format, with a trilateral meeting also including Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky appears to have been rejected by Moscow, potentially leg-sweeping progress and confirming Trump’s stated suspicion that there is little utility left in talk.
The shifting position of Ukrainian public opinion now finds itself somewhat at odds with the publicly stated war goals of several European leaders, not least Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky himself, who have made repeatedly clear that the only acceptable victory is one where Ukraine gets all of its U.N.-recognised land back. As reported in May, the European Union said it was sticking to this absolutist victory position, saying it was essential that even Crimea — which has been illegally occupied by Russia for over a decade — be recaptured.
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