A giant wave of departures is set to hit Capitol Hill’s tax writing committees in the next Congress, jumpstarting the competition to fill some critical gaps in institutional knowledge and ideological representation across two powerful panels.
On the House Ways and Means Committee, three Democrats plan to leave office next year: Reps. Lloyd Doggett of Texas, Danny Davis of Illinois and Dwight Evans of Pennsylvania. Two others — Reps. Tom Suozzi of New York and Steven Horsford of Nevada — are not guaranteed to prevail in tight races, which would create additional openings.
Four Ways and Means Republicans — Reps. Vern Buchanan of Florida, Jodey Arrington of Texas, Kevin Hern of Oklahoma and David Schweikert of Arizona — are also headed for the exits.
In the Senate, the Finance Committee is expected to lose one Democrat, Sen. Tina Smith of Minnesota, as well as five Republicans: Sens. John Cornyn of Texas, Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, Steve Daines of Montana, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee.
Landing an assignment on these high-profile committees is considered a coup that can often take years to achieve. Both play a role in producing major tax legislation, leading to landmark laws like last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act and the Affordable Care Act of 2010. And in the next Congress, it will be where Republicans work to help President Donald Trump cement his legacy of tax cuts, while Democrats build out a tax platform to run on in 2028 — their next chance to win a governing trifecta to codify their agenda.
Adding to the prestige: Members of Senate Finance and Ways and Means are typically among the best funded, given the scope and reach of the committees’ purviews and the special interests eager to curry favor.
Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) said in a recent interview he has met with more than 10 Republicans who are vying to get onto his panel. Among the lead contenders are Reps. Vince Fong of California, Brian Jack of Georgia and Tony Wied of Wisconsin, according to three people granted anonymity to describe private GOP dynamics.
The committee’s top Democrat, Rep. Richard Neal of Massachusetts, said “it’s going to be a hot spot next year” if his party wins back control of the House in the midterms.
Selection for new members of Ways and Means won’t take place until after the elections, and for each party the process is overseen by a slate of lawmakers representing leadership and different geographical regions.
Jockeying is particularly active right now among House Democrats, who are feeling bullish about winning the majority in November and could, in that scenario, gain as many as 10 or more seats on the panel.
Neal said the work of populating the committee on his side of the dais is “really only speculative until you win,” but that “you want to make sure it’s a reflection of the caucus.”
That could create an opening for additional progressive members to join, given the success of far-left candidates in primary elections this cycle plus the planned retirement of Doggett, one of the longest-serving liberal voices on the committee.
Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Greg Casar of Texas could use this gap to his advantage. While he would not comment on his active interest in joining Ways and Means, two people familiar with caucus dynamics — granted anonymity to speak candidly — said he’s going for it.
“My focus as Progressive Caucus chair is on helping make sure that we have progressive members well represented across all of the exclusive committees,” Casar said in an interview.
Another progressive from the southwest, Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez of New Mexico, is also angling for a spot, according to two people familiar with the active conversations.
One Democrat widely considered a frontrunner is Kentucky Rep. Morgan McGarvey, a vice chair of the Progressive Caucus who represents a blue district that includes Louisville. He has co-sponsored legislation on clean energy tax incentives and other affordability tax credits, and would help fill out the southern region’s representation.
Rep. Marilyn Strickland (D-Wash.), a member of the Armed Services Committee, is also seen as having a competitive edge. She can boast having worked on legislation with Ways and Means Republican Blake Moore of Utah that would set up low-income housing tax credits for servicemembers.
In signs these two members have been playing the long game, McGarvey and Strickland have donated three years in a row to the annual fundraising dinner Neal hosts on behalf of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. A member’s willingness to spend generously on the party can tip the scales in their favor.
Six other Democrats contributed to Neal’s dinner this year for the first time — a sign they, too, could be seeking promotions to the panel. Those members are Reps. Tim Kennedy of New York, Kristen McDonald Rivet of Michigan, Rep. Andrea Salinas of Oregon, Gabe Amo of Rhode Island, Johnny Olszewski of Maryland and Hillary Scholten of Michigan.
Ways and Means has not historically been stacked with frontliners because committee members are regularly forced to take politically difficult votes. McGarvey and Strickland have a leg up in this regard because they represent safe Democratic districts.
But it could undermine the ambitions of three more vulnerable Democrats vying to fill a hole in midwestern representation on the panel due to Davis’ retirement: Scholten, McDonald Rivet and Rep. Emilia Sykes of Ohio.
Those three members, however, have experience pushing for tax credits that would benefit their manufacturing-heavy region. And they are women at a time when Democrats should be taking gender into account when making committee assignments, said Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.), who spent four years trying to get onto Ways and Means before finally winning a slot in 2019.
If Democrats flip the House, four of the six subcommittees could be chaired by women, said Beyer, “which would be unprecedented.”
Also weighing on Democrats could be that three of the departing Ways and Means Democrats are members of the Congressional Black Caucus, potentially giving an edge to Strickland, Amo and Sykes.
Across the Capitol, at least four Republicans are looking to serve on the Senate Finance Committee. According to one person granted anonymity to describe internal party dynamics, those lawmakers include Sens. John Curtis of Utah, Bernie Moreno of Ohio, David McCormick of Pennsylvania and Pete Ricketts of Nebraska.
These GOP contenders, and any others, will be evaluated by the so-called Committee on Committees, which is incidentally chaired by the top Republican on Senate Finance, Sen. Mike Crapo of Idaho.
Crapo, in an interview, explained the first pick always goes to Senate Majority Leader John Thune; the second senator must be selected based on seniority. Lawmakers will be chosen according to this alternating pattern until all the open GOP seats on the Finance Committee are filled.
But nothing is settled until after the midterm elections, Crapo said, “and at that time, we can make the decisions. The leader … sometimes consults with me, and sometimes doesn’t, with regard to his pick. But none of that’s going on right now.”
Crapo did acknowledge there’s always quiet jockeying: “It never stops. …There are always members of the Senate who are not on the committee who are letting their desires be known.”
On the Democratic side, no senators are currently making their interest in joining the Finance Committee publicly known. But the committee’s top Democrat, Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon, in an interview mirrored Crapo’s assessment of the competitive landscape.
“Without getting into details,” Wyden said, “there’s always lots of interest and I’ll leave it at that.”
Brian Faler contributed to this report.
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