Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) might be insurmountably behind Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in the primary to keep his seat, a poll shows.
Although other polls have shown Cornyn down by similar margins, this one is significant.
The latest poll was commissioned by the Senate Leadership Fund, a group long-aligned with former Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (KY) that supports Cornyn.
The numbers are daunting for Cornyn’s prospects of winning a fifth six-year Senate term.
Cornyn trails Paxton a staggering 56 to 40 in a head-to-head matchup, according to two people briefed on the survey, Punchbowl News reports. The report continues:
In a three-way contest with Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), who is considering a run, Cornyn is down 10. Paxton pulled 44% to Cornyn’s 34%. Hunt got 19% in the three-way race.
The survey, which was conducted from April 27 to May 1 by The Tarrance Group, also tested a general election contest between each potential Republican candidate and former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), who is mulling another Senate run. Cornyn led Allred by 6 points in the poll. Hunt was up 4 points. Paxton was down by 1 point.
Allred, Democrats’ 2024 nominee, was hailed by Democrats as the candidate who could finally take down Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), whose popularity in the state had waned after his much-maligned vacation to Cancun, Mexico during a severe ice storm in Texas. Democrats poured money into what became the one of the most expensive Senate races in history.
Polls showed a tight race between Cruz and Allred throughout the campaign. Yet Cruz clobbered Allred by almost ten points.
An anonymous spokesperson on Cornyn’s campaign slammed Paxton on the night he announced his primary campaign against the incumbent, alleging without evidence, “Ken claims to be a man of faith but uses fake Uber accounts to meet his girlfriend and deceive his family.”
But Paxton, a top ally of President Donald Trump who is beloved by many in MAGA circles, has survived many establishment attacks before, and not just on his character. Teflon Paxton has survived legal assaults as well as an impeachment attempt from the big business-aligned state legislature.
Paxton only emerged stronger after each wave of attack. Its unlikely more establishment smears will move the needle, although Cornyn and his allies may have few other tools available.
Cornyn’s popularity in the state took a major hit during Joe Biden’s administration.
The Senator played a critical role in 2022 working to pass Biden’s gun control legislation, which funded state “red flag” laws and hindered many gun purchases. And in 2023 served as a key force behind the scenes negotiating the Senate’s pro-migration bill — although he ultimately voted against the legislation after McConnell gave Republicans his blessing to oppose it once it was clear the bill would die.
Despite consistently low polling and the futility of previous attacks on Paxton — and critically, near-universal statewide awareness of those attacks — Cornyn and his allies project confidence, however quixotic it appears.
“The numbers don’t lie — John Cornyn is in a far better early position than Ken Paxton,” an SLF spokesman told Punchbowl. “Texans only need one quick look at Paxton’s record before his support plummets.”
The damning poll’s release from an ally, coupled with the boilerplate, seemingly oblivious SLF statement defending the dire numbers, have fueled speculation SLF and Cornyn’s allies might be sending a friendly message to Cornyn that he cannot win and should retire rather than have his allies burn tens of millions of dollars in a losing effort that could be spent in other more competitive races.
Paxton’s lead might be even greater than the poll suggests. As Punchbowl reports:
Donald Trump’s job approval in the poll was right-side up by 2 points, according to the people briefed on the results. That suggests the sample was more moderate. Trump won the state by 14 points last November.
Cornyn — a McConnell acolyte who served as the Kentuckian’s top assistant before reaching a term limit in the post — first won his seat in 2002 when the second Harry Potter film had not yet been released and Nelly’s “Air Force Ones” was beginning to make its way up the charts.
The Texan was elected to the Senate 14 years before Trump’s first election — a lifetime in politics — and during the Trump years has watched the Republican Party (and Texas political dynamics) swing even more significantly against Cornyn’s centrist brand.
If polling holds, Cornyn will watch further political shifts from the sidelines.
Bradley Jaye is Deputy Political Editor for Breitbart News. Follow him on X/Twitter and Instagram @BradleyAJaye.
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