Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told an Italian newspaper last weekend that it was “absolutely stupid, illogical, and very irresponsible” for the leaders of his country to give up their nuclear weapons in the 1990s.
“If I could go back to 1994, I would only trade our nuclear weapons for something that could truly deter any aggressor, regardless of their political power, territorial size, or military strength,” Zelensky said in an interview with Il Foglio.
Zelensky has made such remarks before, as have other modern Ukrainian leaders, who believe a nuclear umbrella might have prevented Russian President Vladimir Putin from invading in 2022.
“Who gave up nuclear weapons? All of them? No. Ukraine. Who is fighting today? Ukraine,” Zelensky remarked bitterly in October, arguing that either NATO should accept Ukraine as a member of its defensive alliance, or Ukraine’s nuclear deterrent should be restored. Zelensky said he would rather join NATO, while Putin said neither of those options was acceptable.
Ukraine declared independence from the collapsing Soviet Union in 1991 and denuclearized in 1994 under an agreement known as the Budapest Memorandum.
Quite a few of the Soviet Union’s nuclear weapons happened to be parked in Ukraine when the USSR went under, along with everyone’s least favorite Russian nuclear reactor. In fact, Ukraine technically had the third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world.
The Budapest Memorandum was an agreement between the U.S., United Kingdom, Russian Federation, and Ukraine to move all of the nuclear warheads in Ukraine to Russia, where they could be dismantled. Ukraine also joined the legally binding Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a “non-nuclear state,” effectively promising not to rebuild its nuclear arsenal.
In exchange, Kyiv received ironclad promises from the other signatories that its sovereignty and territorial integrity would be respected. In other words, the Ukrainians were told they had no need for a nuclear umbrella.
Crucially, the Budapest Memorandum was not a legally binding treaty that would obligate the United States and United Kingdom to defend Ukraine against a Russian attack. Ukraine desired such a commitment for obvious reasons, but President Bill Clinton and Prime Minister John Major were not willing to pledge the use of military force. Instead, it was understood — without quite being written down anywhere — that America and Britain would provide military assistance to Ukraine in the event of an invasion, which is precisely what they have done since 2022.
Other countries, including China, later promised to respect Ukraine’s independence, but they did not pledge to defend it or even add their signatures to the Budapest Memorandum.
The iron cladding on those security promises had grown a bit rusty by 2014, when the inhabitants of the Crimean Peninsula in Ukraine awoke one morning to discover that the throngs of mysterious men in unmarked military uniforms that had been steadily accumulating in their city streets were, in fact, invading Russian soldiers.
Some Ukrainian leaders at the time wanted the rest of the world to condemn Russia’s annexation of Crimea as a violation of the Budapest Memorandum, but the American and British governments were unwilling to escalate the confrontation with Russia to such a degree. The Russians argued they did not violate the memorandum because they did not use nuclear weapons to annex Crimea.
In fact, Moscow claims the only text in the Budapest Memorandum was a promise not to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, an assertion that is demonstrably false. The memorandum has six major points; Number 5 is a pledge by the three nuclear-power signatories not to drop atomic bombs on any non-nuclear weapons state.
Zelensky has argued that full NATO membership – including Article 5 protection, which obliges the entire alliance to respond if any member is attacked, although it still does not mandate immediate military action – is the only acceptable substitute for the rubbished guarantees of sovereign independence offered by the effectively defunct Budapest Memorandum. The memo has not been formally annulled, although it is understandable that the Ukrainians consider it a short-sighted failure.
The context of Zelensky’s remarks to Il Foglio was a conversation he had with President Donald Trump about the Budapest Memorandum. According to Zelensky, Trump said he understood Ukraine’s reluctance to rely on vague promises, such as those that might be offered during the ceasefire negotiations Trump wants to broker.
Zelensky said he cited Putin’s careless betrayal of the Budapest Memorandum, and also the Minsk Accords that halted fighting with Russia-backed separatists a decade ago, to Trump as evidence the Russian leader’s promises cannot be trusted.
“Almost everything depends on what we Ukrainians are able to secure to protect ourselves, because we will not make the mistakes of the past again,” he told Il Foglio.
Zelensky said Putin does not truly want to end the war in Ukraine, but he was optimistic that Trump could bring Russia to the table.
“It will not happen quickly. But Trump, thanks to his strength, sanctions, the strength of the U.S., and the economy, can speed it up,” he said.
Zelensky was insistent that Ukraine must also have a seat at the negotiating table, rather than allowing the U.S. to deal bilaterally with Russia. He also wanted European nations to be involved.
“As for what the set-up of the talks will be: Ukraine, I really hope Ukraine will be there, America, Europe and the Russians. Yes, I would really want that Europe would take part, because we will be members of the European Union,” he said.
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