By Dane Chamorro and Colonel Grant Newsham
While tariffs, Ukraine, Gaza and Greenland (and even Canada) dominate the policy-media cycle, one of the most important areas of the globe – both strategically and economically – is seemingly going (once again) ‘underserved’, despite the Secretaries of State and Defense and the National Security Advisor attesting to the region’s importance. And a stated reason for ending the Ukraine War is to allow the United States to shift efforts to the Indo-Pacific.
However, aside from the visit of Japan’s PM Ishiba to the White House, relatively little attention seems to have been placed on Northeast Asia – Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has only just now made an official visit to Japan. This is despite the fact that the region is arguably one of the world’s most important crisis zones, includes two formal U.S. treaty allies (and one ‘near ally’) and several hubs of key future technologies. The three countries are also a major source of direct investment into the U.S. – Japan is the #1 foreign investor in the U.S. while South Korea represented 14% of the overall total and Taiwan’s TSMC is making the biggest single investment ever in the history of the United States.
The timing is all the more critical because the three are in throes of their own domestic political crises. With ruling parties confronting parliaments that are controlled by the opposition, they are poorly prepared to respond to any new U.S. initiatives related to trade, regional security, or defense spending.
World globe showing mainly Asia.
Getty ImagesJapan is going through another period of lackluster leadership under Prime Minister Ishiba’s minority LDP government while the economy is essentially flat. Ishiba is desperately trying to shore up his and the LDP’s position in preparation for upper house elections in summer. But he may be forced to resign even before the elections, and likely will step down if the LDP performs poorly, thus forcing an early general election and the prospect of another weak government.
South Korea’s political predicament is well known following ex-President Yoon’s maladroit attempt at imposing martial law in December. Yoon faces impeachment and the constitutional court will shortly rule on his fate. The Korean polity is deeply divided and the leftist opposition Democratic Party (DP) just might win an election if Yoon is removed. A DP government would likely mean a much less friendly strategic trilateral relationship with both Japan and the U.S.
Taiwan’s President William Lai Ching-de faces a legislature controlled by the now openly (historical irony notwithstanding) pro-China Kuomintang party, which has attempted numerous times to undermine the island’s institutions by making them more China ‘friendly’ including significant cuts to the island’s defense spending
Meanwhile, the U.S.’ relative lack of focus so far on the region is nothing new. There’s long been a magnetic draw to Europe, the Middle East, and now Latin America and the Arctic. These are all important in their own right – but absorb precious money, resources, and attention. Northeast Asia (and the rest of Asia) gets plenty of talk, but in the end, somehow it always gets shortchanged.
Recall the ‘Asia pivot’ during the Obama era? Ultimately it was smoke and mirrors. U.S. military power in the Pacific didn’t increase in any noticeable way – and did not deter the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s transformation into a powerful force able to throw its weight around the region (for starters). In fact, ‘deescalate’ was the Obama administration’s default policy choice for China. President Trump’s first administration was the first to really view the PRC as an enemy, not just a competitor. It made some good progress but really only had two or three years to focus before losing office.
Team Biden appeased Beijing far more often than not, and talked of something called ‘integrated deterrence’. That’s shorthand for expecting allies to make up the difference for an inadequate U.S. military presence and limited political attention. Unfortunately, the allies were not, and are not, up to the task.
It is argued that U.S. administrations don’t have the ‘bandwidth’ to deal with so many things – and thus nobody should complain about too little attention paid to Asia. But the U.S. is not Costa Rica. It has plenty of bandwidth if it feels like using it. For some reason, it rarely does – unless there’s a headline grabbing crisis like a North Korean nuclear test.
The importance of Northeast Asia cannot be overstated. The collective GDP of the three major free nations is 50% more than Russia and Ukraine combined. From a technology perspective, if the West is to compete successfully with China on anything from ‘chips to ships’ (to borrow the Samsung tagline), not to mention in the new energy/EV space, it needs Northeast Asian states ‘firing on all cylinders’. In other words, if the region plunges into conflict or ceases to function, the impact on the U.S. and the rest of the world is massive.
And economic disruption is just one problem. This is a dangerous part of the world where weakness – real or perceived – can incentivize the likes of China, Russia or North Korea into a dangerous game of brinksmanship. In fact as the only place on the planet where all three share a border, arguably it already is.
Northeast Asia is also the one place on the planet where the U.S. military can be defeated if the People’s Republic of China chooses its time and place correctly.
The Trump administration’s Asia policy will eventually come together and it’s still early. Time will tell if Asia and Northeast Asia in particular get the attention they deserve. If so, it will be a first.
Colonel Grant Newsham is a retired U.S. Marine officer whose experience in the
Indo-Pacific include serving as reserve head of intelligence for Marine Forces
Pacific. He is the author of the 2023 book When China Attacks: A Warning to America.
Dane Chamorro is a partner at international risk consultancy, Control Risks. He is a former U.S. diplomat and China specialist.
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